BMIE Market 17019

York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,594 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±701 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,548 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±299 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,721 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,207 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$94,423 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,788 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,138 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±62 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$299,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,415 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	63.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17019
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+45.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17019. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.4	79	40%	+31.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.8	64	35%	+22.3
Market Momentum Score	26.5	26	25%	+6.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,594	81	40%	+32.4
Median household income (ACS)	94,423	77	40%	+30.8
Households (ACS)	7,548	81	20%	+16.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.2	80	25%	+19.9
Population (ACS)	19,594	81	20%	+16.2
Median household income (ACS)	94,423	77	20%	+15.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.8	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

Dessert 5 · American 4 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Dessert 7 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
An Occasional Cookie	Bakery	Bakery	47 S Baltimore St	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	891 N Us Route 15	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	891 N Us Highway 15	open
Baker's Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	515 N U.S. 15	open
Bakin' You Happy	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1091 York Rd	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 Tristan Dr	open
China One China One	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	840 N US Highway 15	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	825 N US Highway 15	open
Devil's Eye Brewing Co Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 N US Route 15	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	406 North US Highway 15	open
Ferrante's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	305 N Baltimore St	open
Greystone Brew House	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		303 Golf Club Ave	open
Hacienda Del Sol	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	825 N US Highway 15	open
Heckerts Linen Service, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		30 S 2nd St	open
Hemauer Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		465 Cabin Hollow Rd	open
Kona Ice of Carlisle, Mechanicsburg & Dillsburg Kona Ice	Dessert · Food truck	Dessert		open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	854 N U.S. 15	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	898 N US Highway 15	open
Millennium Pizzeria & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	26 S Baltimore St	open
Nonno's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	825 N U.S. 15	open
Noonan's Tavern	Bar		303 Golf Club Ave	open
Pakha's Thai House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	3 S US Route 15	open
R And Ps Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6 Tristan Dr # A	open
Red Barn Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	860 Range End Rd	open
Road Hawg Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	43 S Baltimore St	open
Rws Pizza Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6 Tristan Dr	open
Square Bean Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1 S Baltimore St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	830 US-15	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	852 North US Hwy 15	open
The Pickle Nickel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	119 N Baltimore St	open
Tucker and Co. Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	148 S Baltimore St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6 Old Mill Rd	open
Wolfe's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	625 N U.S. 15	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	14	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	16	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	12	4	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	16	14	4	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	19	17	5	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	21	18	6	9	3	2	NAICS2002
2006	18	16	5	8	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	6	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	15	15	6	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	15	6	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	8	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	18	7	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	21	20	9	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	6	11	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	22	20	6	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	19	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	25	21	6	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	20	6	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	19	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	18	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	5	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17019. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17323	1.3 mi	—
17027	4.9 mi	1	1999
17365	4.9 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.