BMIE Market 17028

Lebanon County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±810 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,456 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,720 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,577 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$59,554 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,070 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,244 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±250 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$163,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±137,111 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	27.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17028
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	24.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2018, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-66.7% DERIVED: 2008 → 2018, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 1998 → 2018, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2023	0 (range 0–0) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2008–2018 (11 points, -0.8 per year, r² 0.85) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	32 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	4 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17028. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2008–2018, -0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.85, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	44.7	45	40%	+17.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.8	37	35%	+12.9
Market Momentum Score	3.8	4	25%	+1.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,563	55	40%	+22.0
Median household income (ACS)	59,554	29	40%	+11.6
Households (ACS)	1,456	56	20%	+11.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-66.7	1	35%	+0.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.4	79	25%	+19.7
Population (ACS)	3,563	55	20%	+11.0
Median household income (ACS)	59,554	29	20%	+5.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 4 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-50	4	50%	+2.0
10-year restaurant growth	-66.7	1	30%	+0.4
20-year restaurant growth	-40	7	20%	+1.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 5 · Italian 3 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 5 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bow Creek Inn Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		9554 Jonestown Rd	open
Crossroads Cafe	Casual dining	American	9147 Allentown Blvd	open
Epic Buffet	Buffet		777 Hollywood Blvd	open
F J F G	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		108 Kelley Ct	open
Fabio's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	108 Kelley Ct	open
Fjfgllc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		108 Kelley Ct	open
Great American Grille	Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	604 Station Rd	open
Italian Delight	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	490 Bow Creek Rd	open
J & P Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		10417 Mountain Rd	open
La Casa Blanca Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		668 Firehouse Rd	open
Mountain View at Penn National Race Course	Restaurant (service type not stated)		777 Hollywood Blvd	open
Mountainview Dining & Terrace Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		777 Hollywood Blvd	open
Shakedown BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	668 Firehouse Rd	open
Skybox Sports Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Brewery / taproom · Bar · Coffee shop · Café	Steakhouse · Dessert · Coffee · American	777 Hollywood Blvd	open
Smoking Aces BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	668 Firehouse Rd	open
Thoroughbred’s Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar		10104 Jonestown Rd	open
Villa Rosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	9916 Allentown Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	—	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	6	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	—	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	8	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	9	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	9	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	8	5	4	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	5	2	2	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17028. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.