BMIE Market 17038

Lebanon County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±545 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,401 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±281 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,219 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,292 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,417 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,443 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$977 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$252,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,352 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	66.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17038
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17038. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.3	63	40%	+25.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.5	49	35%	+17.3
Market Momentum Score	21.0	21	25%	+5.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,394	68	40%	+27.3
Median household income (ACS)	75,417	56	40%	+22.3
Households (ACS)	3,401	69	20%	+13.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.5	74	25%	+18.5
Population (ACS)	8,394	68	20%	+13.6
Median household income (ACS)	75,417	56	20%	+11.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 9 · Sandwiches 5 · Burgers 4 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 10 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amie Ts	Café	American · Coffee	2651 PA-72	open
Blimpie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 Lickdale Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8 Fisher Ave	open
Chester's Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	22 Old Forge Rd	open
Covenant Cafe	Café	Coffee	173 S Lancaster St	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8 Fisher Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	189 S Lancaster St	open
Double H Sourdough	Bakery	Bakery	31 N King St	open
Frogs Hollow Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	2271 PA-72	open
Frostbitez	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	333 W Market St	open
Godfather's Pizza	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Pizza · Coffee · Dessert	1 Lickdale Rd	open
Jersey Joe's Boardwalk Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches	2651 PA-72	open
Kreiser Subway	Quick service		122 Racehorse Dr	open
May's Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	181 S Lancaster St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	22 Old Forge Rd	open
Miller's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2665 PA-72	open
Mooses LZ	Casual dining · Bar	American	211 Fisher Ave	open
Mother Clucker's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2651 State Route 72	open
North Side Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	11 Lickdale Rd	open
Pizza Town	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	171 E Market St	open
Pizza Town II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2 Micro Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4 Fisher Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	185 S. Lancaster Street Suite 8	open
Sugar Dusted Bakers	Bakery	Bakery	144 E Market St	open
Swatara Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	40 W Market St	open
ThePerse Jonestown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	22 S King St	open
Tony's On Market Street	Restaurant (service type not stated)		333 W Market St	open
Uniontown Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2655 PA-72	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2 Everest Ln	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	8	4	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	5	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	10	6	3	3	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	11	7	4	3	—	4	NAICS2002
2005	11	7	5	2	—	4	NAICS2002
2006	11	7	5	2	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	5	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	9	6	3	2	1	3	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17038. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17077	4.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.