BMIE Market 17046

Lebanon County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,057 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,590 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±670 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,790 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,370 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$62,221 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,009 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±69 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$191,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17046
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+63.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 19–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.53) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	45 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17046. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.53, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.6	68	40%	+27.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.5	78	35%	+27.1
Market Momentum Score	45.4	45	25%	+11.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,835	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	62,221	34	40%	+13.6
Households (ACS)	12,590	90	20%	+18.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	63.6	87	35%	+30.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.7	89	25%	+22.4
Population (ACS)	31,835	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	62,221	34	20%	+6.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.3	22	50%	+11.2
10-year restaurant growth	63.6	87	30%	+26.0
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (60)

By cuisine

American 9 · Bakery 7 · Pizza 6 · Italian 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Coffee 4 · Asian 3 · Caribbean 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Bar 14 · Quick service 10 · Casual dining 9 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 6 · Café 4 · Food truck 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
"The Homestead"	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1400 W Maple St	open
7th Street Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1663 N 7th St	open
A & M Pizza Restaurant	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	701 Lehman St	open
Always Bagels Inc	Bakery	Bakery	3010 Hanford Dr	open
Are and Be Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	381 N 8th St	open
B&A Paradise Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	700 Reinoehl St	open
Beastly Treats & Healthy Eats	Juice, smoothie, tea	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian · Juice / smoothies	1144 PA-72	open
Buddys Breakfast and Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	225 N 8th St	open
Ceballos Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Latin American (other) · Dessert	381 N 9th St	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	811 Bowman St	open
Dottie Feathers Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	416 E Guilford St	open
Fifth Ward Bar and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		750 N 15th Ave	open
Francisco Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	375 N 10th St	open
Gary's Sports Bar & Grill	Bar		414 N 7th St	open
Giacomo Pizza & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1130 State Route 72 N	open
Heisey's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1740 State Route 72 N	open
Italian Village Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2 Lehman St	open
Javi Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Caribbean	365 N 9th St	open
Javi Restaurant 3	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	225 N 8th St	open
JLY Caribbean Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1612 N 7th St	open
K & W's Smokin' Pig	Quick service · Food truck	American	1840 State Route 72 N	open
Kalembo's social smoker II"""	Bar		201 Lehman St	open
Latin House Restaurant RD	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other) · Caribbean · American	433 N 9th St	open
Lebanon Valley Craft Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		840 N 7th St	open
Leiby's Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		610 N 7th St	open
Liberty Fire Co Marching Club	Bar		509 N 9th St	open
Liberty Square Liberty Square Cafe	Bar · Café	Coffee	447 N 9th St	open
LoL Club PA	Bar		40 N 7th St	open
Longhorn Steakhouse Harrisburg Pa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse		open
Louise Heffelfinger's Baked Goods & Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	85 Heffelfinger Rd	open
M & B Pizzeria Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		701 Lehman St	open
Mama Juana Lounge & Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	39 N 9th St	open
Maple Street Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	maple street	open
Martino's Italian Traditions	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1844 State Route 72 N	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1202 W Maple St	open
McDonald's	Quick service		1355 E Lehman St	open
North China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	720 Jonestown Rd	open
Ogre's Swamp N Grill	Casual dining · Bar			open
Philly Pretzel Factory Philly Pretzel Factory	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	1355 E Lehman St	open
Robin's Ice	Quick service · Food truck · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	545 Lehman St	open
Ryan's Rolling Boil	Food truck · Catering	Seafood	825 Patmar Dr	open
Sabor Criollo “La Casa Del Mofongo”	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	720 Jonestown Rd	open
Shuey's Pretzels	Bakery	Bakery	702 E Lehman St	open
Silver Dollar	Bar		46 N 9th St	open
Snitz Creek Brewery Snitz Creek Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		7 N 9th St	open
St Gertrude's Club	Bar		302 E Lehman St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1610 N. Seventh Street	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	813 Bowman Street Store #7	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1355 E Lehman St	open
Sugar Mama's Cotton Candy	Food truck			open
Sydney Roasting Co	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	12 N 9th St	open
The Wetlands Restaurant and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		319 Pine Meadow Rd	open
Trattoria Fratelli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza · European	502 E Lehman St	open
Van Winkle's Candies	Dessert		312 Guilford St	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1355 E Lehman St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1490 E Lehman St	open
Willow Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	50 N 9th St	open
Willow House	Bar · Casual dining		41 N 5th St	open
Wrinkle & Boon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	12 N 9th St	open
Smart Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	15 E Lehman St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	24	16	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1996	26	17	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1997	28	21	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1998	25	15	9	5	—	8	NAICS1997
1999	25	15	8	6	—	8	NAICS1997
2000	28	20	9	9	1	7	NAICS1997
2001	28	19	10	8	—	8	NAICS1997
2002	28	18	8	9	—	9	NAICS1997
2003	26	16	8	7	—	9	NAICS2002
2004	31	22	10	11	—	8	NAICS2002
2005	31	22	9	11	1	8	NAICS2002
2006	28	18	8	9	—	8	NAICS2002
2007	28	18	10	8	—	8	NAICS2002
2008	25	16	9	7	—	7	NAICS2007
2009	21	12	6	6	—	7	NAICS2007
2010	20	12	7	5	—	6	NAICS2007
2011	22	14	5	9	—	6	NAICS2007
2012	18	10	6	4	—	6	NAICS2012
2013	18	11	5	5	1	6	NAICS2012
2014	18	11	4	6	1	6	NAICS2012
2015	20	12	4	7	1	7	NAICS2012
2016	22	14	6	7	1	7	NAICS2012
2017	25	19	8	9	—	6	NAICS2017
2018	25	19	7	9	3	6	NAICS2017
2019	28	21	9	9	3	7	NAICS2017
2020	25	19	7	9	3	6	NAICS2017
2021	24	19	7	10	—	5	NAICS2017
2022	21	16	6	8	—	5	NAICS2022
2023	22	18	4	10	4	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17046. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.