BMIE Market 17222

Franklin County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,550 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±948 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,594 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±375 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,749 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,900 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,906 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±317 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$255,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,680 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	65.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17222
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 7–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17222. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.1	68	40%	+27.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.5	68	35%	+23.6
Market Momentum Score	59.1	59	25%	+14.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,550	72	40%	+28.6
Median household income (ACS)	80,000	62	40%	+24.8
Households (ACS)	4,594	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.6	82	25%	+20.5
Population (ACS)	10,550	72	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	80,000	62	20%	+12.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 8 · Italian 6 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
65 South BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	8228 Lincoln Way E	open
Caledonia Café	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	6195 Chambersburg Rd	open
Ciao Bella	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	6418 Chambersburg Rd	open
Flamingo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5600 Lincoln Way E	open
Founders Grille Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3720 Club House Dr	open
Giacomo's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	107 Mont Alto Rd	open
La Bella Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	6418 Chambersburg Rd	open
La Mattina's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	8228 Lincoln Way E	open
Leroy's original jerk chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	Lincoln way	open
Maria & Sal's Pizzaria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4550 Lincoln Way E	open
Mim's Mighty Meaty Hoagies	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	423 W Main St	open
South Mountain Hotel	Bar · Casual dining	American	10479 Dixon Rd	open
Summer House Ice Cream & Deli	Dessert · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches	112 W Main St	open
The Inn Grounds	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	3809 Anthony Hwy	open
The Original Arturos II & Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mexican	10503 S Mountain Rd	open
Timber's Restaurant and Ice Cream Parlor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8228 Lincoln Way E	open
Vince's New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4550 Lincoln Way E	open
Yianni's Greenwood Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	6880 Chambersburg Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	6	2	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17222. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17261	2.7 mi	1	2016
17237	4.8 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.