BMIE Market 17315

York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,760 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,021 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,739 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±454 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,756 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,641 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,884 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,675 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,260 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±115 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$234,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	58.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17315
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-18.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-7.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 12–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17315. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.1	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	16.7	17	25%	+4.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,760	86	40%	+34.3
Median household income (ACS)	82,884	66	40%	+26.2
Households (ACS)	10,739	87	20%	+17.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	35%	+5.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.1	92	25%	+22.9
Population (ACS)	25,760	86	20%	+17.2
Median household income (ACS)	82,884	66	20%	+13.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	50%	+6.9
10-year restaurant growth	-18.8	14	30%	+4.3
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 8 · Pizza 7 · Bakery 6 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · Café 5 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2Delicious	Quick service · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Greek	3096 Carlisle Rd	open
Amy's Custom Cakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	83 W Canal St	open
Bill Mack's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3890 Carlisle Rd	open
Bricker All Fresh French Fries	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	4735 Lewisberry Rd	open
Burger King	Quick service		3282 Carlisle Rd	open
China One China One	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2146 Palomino Rd	open
Crazy Heifer Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	21 N Main St	open
Double D's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	700 York Rd	open
Dover Fish & Game	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6071 Fish and Game Rd	open
Dover Tactical	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2001 George St	open
Dover Valley Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	3720 Carlisle Rd	open
E & N Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6491 Carlisle Rd	open
Flohr's Pool Bar	Bar · Casual dining		4321 Davidsburg Rd	open
Fox's Pizza Den Fox's Pizza Den & Arcade	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	2150 Palomino Rd	open
Greer’s Burger Garage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	121 S Main St	open
Heavenly Sweet Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert		open
Jim and Nena's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4720 Carlisle Rd	open
Kewl Runnings Tiki Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2399 Emig Mill Rd	open
Leona's Cafe' & Bakery	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	56 S Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3141 Carlisle Rd	open
Moonlight Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Coffee	4140 Carlisle Rd	open
Never Heard Of It Farm	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies	5811 Kochenauer Ln	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3098 Carlisle Rd York	open
Route 74 Restaurant	Casual dining	American	4980 Carlisle Rd	open
S&W Homemade Specialties	Dessert		5010 Carlisle Rd	open
Sal's Pizza & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	3100 Carlisle Rd	open
Sarah's Creamery	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	121 S Main St	open
Smittie's Soft Pretzels Inc.	Bakery	Bakery	6065 Carlisle Rd	open
SoulShine Roasting Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2994 Carlisle Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3160 Carlisle Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2148 Palomino Rd	open
Tacos Estilo Tijuana Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3761 Carlisle Rd	open
Taqueria El Camino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	81 W Canal St	open
The Caterers at Bake My Day Cafe	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea	American · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	700 York Rd	open
The Dirty Dock	Bar		4317 Winchester Rd	open
The LUNCH BOX	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	700 York Rd	open
The Meadows Dover The Meadows Original Frozen Custard of Hollidaysburg	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Breakfast	3096 Carlisle Rd	open
The Pizza Box & Hoagie Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	21 N Main St	open
TrackSide Eats & Sweets	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	American	700 York Rd	open
Zanelli's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	81 West Canal Street	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	17	15	4	10	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	17	15	5	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	4	12	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	16	3	12	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	18	17	4	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	15	3	11	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	16	3	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	16	4	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	3	12	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	3	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	15	3	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	3	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	17	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17315. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.