BMIE Market 17350

Adams County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,169 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±734 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,306 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±290 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,886 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,071 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,401 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,727 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,282 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±84 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$236,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,582 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	44.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17350
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+29.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+15.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+46.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17350. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.4	69	40%	+27.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.6	64	35%	+22.3
Market Momentum Score	63.6	64	25%	+15.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,169	75	40%	+29.9
Median household income (ACS)	79,401	61	40%	+24.5
Households (ACS)	5,306	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	29.4	71	35%	+24.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.7	47	25%	+11.7
Population (ACS)	13,169	75	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	79,401	61	20%	+12.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10	68	50%	+33.8
10-year restaurant growth	29.4	71	30%	+21.2
20-year restaurant growth	15.8	43	20%	+8.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

American 9 · Pizza 6 · Coffee 5 · Italian 4 · Burgers 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 6 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Other 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angel's Cut	Brewery / taproom	American	4797 York Rd	open
Bourbon Mill	Casual dining · Bar	American	4797 York Rd	open
Brookmere Winery Brookmere Winery & Vineyard Inn	Winery / distillery / taproom		2 Lincoln Way E	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	6090 York Rd	open
China Sun Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6115 York Rd	open
DB's Smokehouse, Seafood and Pub	Bar	Seafood · American	110 Gun Club Rd	open
Deja Brew Coffee & Bakery	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	16 Center Sq	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	5662 York Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	5625 York Rd	open
Emingee's Fastnachts, Donuts, Ice Cream and Italian Ice	Dessert · Café · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Bakery	5395 Carlisle Pike	open
Gallo Pizza & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	6415 York Rd	open
Half Pint Creamery Half Pint Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	400 Lincoln Way E	open
Higinbotham's Tea Room	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies	102 Lincoln Way W	open
Inn 94	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4805 Carlisle Pike	open
Inn 94 Restaurant & Cocktail Lounge	Bar	Seafood · American	4805 Carlisle Pike	open
Johnny & Rude's Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6115 York Rd Ste 6	open
Johnny's Pizza New Oxford	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6115 York Rd	open
Kona Ice of Adams County	Food truck		26 Bugler Dr	open
La de Michoacan	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	4335 York Rd	open
Little Italy IV	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	27 Stoney Point Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6040 York Rd	open
New Oxford Family Diner	Casual dining	American	6431 York Rd	open
Paleteria y Neveria la de Michoacan	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		4335 York Rd	open
Park Hotel	Bar		8 Center Sq	open
Pizza Garden Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	105 Lincoln Way E	open
Plainville Brands	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		304 S Water St	open
Rocks Lounge	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	6465 York Rd	open
Rosie's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		370 Lincoln Way E	open
San Marcos Mexican Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	444 Lincoln Way E	open
Sub Stop	Other · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	228 Lincoln Way E	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	320 Lincoln Way E	open
The Goalpost	Bar		5413 Carlisle Pike	open
Three Arrows Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5413 Carlisle Pike	open
Walker's Seafood 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2034 E Berlin Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6167 York Rd	open
Winter Gardens	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		304 Commerce St	open
Cross Keys Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	6110 York Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	12	10	7	3	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	13	11	7	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	16	13	7	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	6	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	18	15	9	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2003	20	19	10	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	19	17	11	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	15	7	7	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	20	17	8	8	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	18	16	8	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	19	16	7	7	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	20	18	8	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	19	16	6	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	19	17	7	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	20	18	8	8	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	19	17	7	8	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	20	18	7	10	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	19	17	6	10	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	21	18	7	9	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	23	19	6	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	20	7	10	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	22	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	19	8	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	18	6	8	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	22	6	12	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17350. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.