BMIE Market 17361
York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 6,156 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±521 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 2,570 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±177 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 5,806 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 2,414 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $104,958 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,229 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 49.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,010 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±258 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $297,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,158 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 3.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17361 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 31.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +52.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +128.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +128.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 38 (range 35–41) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.1 per year, r² 0.90) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17361. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.90, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 72.0 | 72 | 40% | +28.8 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 61.5 | 61 | 35% | +21.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 82.5 | 83 | 25% | +20.6 |
Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 6,156 | 64 | 40% | +25.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 104,958 | 84 | 40% | +33.6 |
| Households (ACS) | 2,570 | 65 | 20% | +13.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 52.4 | 85 | 35% | +29.6 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 52.0 | 9 | 25% | +2.3 |
| Population (ACS) | 6,156 | 64 | 20% | +12.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 104,958 | 84 | 20% | +16.8 |
Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 23.1 | 79 | 50% | +39.7 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 52.4 | 85 | 30% | +25.4 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 128.6 | 87 | 20% | +17.4 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (45)
By cuisine
American 9 · Bakery 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Pizza 6 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · Burgers 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Asian 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 14 · Bakery 9 · Dessert 6 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arby's Arby's | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 669 Shrewsbury Commons | open |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 549 S Main St | open |
| Big Apple Bagels | Bakery | Bakery | 586 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Bread of Life | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Bakery | 10 Crosswind Dr | open |
| Bubba D's Pizza & Wings Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 39 E Forrest Ave | open |
| Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Sandwiches | 14665 Mount Airy Rd | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 98 Sofia Dr | open |
| Christy Maries Cake And Candy Supplies | Bakery | Bakery | 83 E Forrest Ave | open |
| Coach Light Restaurant | Casual dining | American | 99 E Forrest Ave | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 546 S Main St | open |
| Echo Frezco Écho Frezco: Shrewsbury | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 634 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Emerald Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 564 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Five Guys Five Guys | Quick service | Burgers · American | 96 Sofia Dr | open |
| Fractured Prune | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 640 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Hungerford Diner And Coffee Shoppe Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3 Old Farm Ln | open | |
| J & B's Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 14 N Main St | open |
| Jacs & Me Of New Freedom Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 18 Constitution Ave | open | |
| Jalapenos Mexican Grill | Casual dining · Bar | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 6-18 Constitution Ave | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 472 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| KFC Taco Bell | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Chicken / wings | 450 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Little Caesars Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 586 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Mason Dixon Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3 Old Farm Ln | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 534 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| New China Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 565 S Main St | open |
| Nikolas' Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 551 S Main St | open |
| No.1 Szechuan | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 14635 Mount Airy Rd | open |
| Oola Bowls Shrewsbury Oola Bowls Lebanon PA | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 14605 Mount Airy Rd | open |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Fast casual | Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 98 Sofia Drive | open |
| Philly Pretzel Factory Philly Pretzel Factory | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Bakery · American | 698 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 546 S Main St | open |
| Rita's Italian Ice Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard | Dessert | Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 466 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Rita’s of Shrewsbury PA Rita's Italian Ice | Dessert · Bar | Dessert | open | |
| Sal's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 437 S Main St | open |
| Samurai Hibachi Sushi Japanese Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse | 616 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Sons of Sicily | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 14645 Mount Airy Rd #202 | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 14605 Mt. Airy Road | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 18 Constitution Avenue | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 576 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Sweet Frog | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 14635 Mount Airy Rd | open |
| The Village Coffee & Cream | Coffee shop · Dessert · Café | Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 44 S Main St | open |
| Toltecos Ii Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 634 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open | |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 630 Shrewsbury Commons Avenue | open |
| Vincent's Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · Italian | 551 S Main St | open |
| Walmart Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 698 Shrewsbury Commons Ave | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 75 E Forrest Ave | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 14 | 14 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 10 | 10 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 12 | 12 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 13 | 13 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 8 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 17 | 17 | 9 | 8 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 7 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 7 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 5 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 8 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 17 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 17 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 20 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 23 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 22 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 20 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 25 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 28 | 24 | 7 | 13 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 28 | 24 | 6 | 14 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 29 | 25 | 7 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 26 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 26 | 26 | 7 | 15 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 30 | 29 | 7 | 17 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 30 | 28 | 6 | 17 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 33 | 30 | 7 | 17 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 35 | 32 | 7 | 21 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 35 | 32 | 7 | 20 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |