BMIE Market 17364

York County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,209 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±715 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,623 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±262 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,907 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,526 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,677 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,298 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$777 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±650 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$215,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,564 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17364
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-66.7% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-80.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-80.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	0 (range 0–0) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2006–2016 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.85) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	0 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17364. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2006–2016, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.85, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.0	57	40%	+22.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.4	47	35%	+16.6
Market Momentum Score	0.4	0	25%	+0.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,209	58	40%	+23.0
Median household income (ACS)	75,677	56	40%	+22.5
Households (ACS)	1,623	58	20%	+11.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-80	0	35%	+0.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.4	99	25%	+24.6
Population (ACS)	4,209	58	20%	+11.5
Median household income (ACS)	75,677	56	20%	+11.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 0 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-66.7	1	50%	+0.4
10-year restaurant growth	-80	0	30%	+0.0
20-year restaurant growth	-80	0	20%	+0.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 8 · Coffee 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · French 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3.14 & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Morningstar Marketplace, 5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Anchor Down Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	6486 W Lincoln Hwy	open
Beauregard's Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5309 Lincoln Hwy	open
Benjamin & Son Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5309 Lincoln Hwy	open
Bertos family restaurant llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5408 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Carousel Creperie	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · American	5309 Lincoln Highway, dover, PA	open
Chard by Jay	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Pizza	5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Chicken Shack at Morning Sun Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Chinese · American	Morningstar Marketplace, 5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Chilly Dawgz Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Cool Wings	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	5309 W Lincoln Hwy	open
Cupcakes By Jenn	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
El Taco Locko	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5309 Lincoln Hwy	open
Los Nopaleros Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)		open
Luca’s Market	Food truck		5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Martin's Snacks	Dessert · Specialty food shop		5847 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Mi Casita Café	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Latin American (other) · Juice / smoothies	7348 Lincoln Hwy	open
Millek's Subs	Food truck · Quick service	Sandwiches	5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Old Farm House Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee · American	7027 Lincoln Hwy	open
Old Republic Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5309 Lincoln Hwy	open
RaceHorse Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		738 N Biesecker Rd	open
Rambler Inn	Bar	American	6600 W Lincoln Hwy	open
Rise and Shine Smoothie	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	5309 Lincoln Hwy	open
Sharon's Sweet Shop	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	Morningstar Marketplace, 5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
Steffenshire Winery & Meadworks	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Morningstar Marketplace, 5309 Lincoln Hwy W	open
White Horse Diner	Casual dining	American	5408 Lincoln Hwy W	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	6	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	2	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	6	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	4	2	2	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	3	1	1	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	3	1	1	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	3	1	1	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	3	1	1	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17364. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17301	4.8 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.