BMIE Market 17517

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,686 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±916 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,334 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±347 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,391 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,705 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$99,202 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,635 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,224 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±115 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$296,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17517
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17517. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.7	78	40%	+31.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.6	58	35%	+20.2
Market Momentum Score	10.7	11	25%	+2.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,686	76	40%	+30.5
Median household income (ACS)	99,202	80	40%	+32.2
Households (ACS)	5,334	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	35%	+3.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.5	90	25%	+22.5
Population (ACS)	14,686	76	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	99,202	80	20%	+16.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	30%	+3.2
20-year restaurant growth	-20	14	20%	+2.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · American 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baskin-robbins Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	2055 N Reading Rd	open
Bella Italia	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1255 Reading Rd	open
Castaneda's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	323 Main St	open
Courtyard Cafe on Main	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	349 Main St	open
Happy Dog Kettle and Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		25 Pine St	open
Island Time	Bar	Caribbean	2170 N Reading Rd	open
Mozzerella Fella's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		5 Main St	open
New Beijing Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2350 N Reading Rd Ste 9	open
Park Place Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2270 N Reading Rd	open
Pepperidge Farm	Bakery	Bakery	2195 N Reading Rd	open
Procopio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2525 N Reading Rd	open
Qdoba Qdoba	Quick service		2055 N Reading Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2350 N Reading Rd	open
The Denver House	Bar		240 Main St	open
Zia Maria Italian Eatery & Pub Zia Maria Italian Eatery & Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2350 N Reading Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	4	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	5	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	5	2	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	11	8	3	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	9	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	3	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	11	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17517. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17578	2.0 mi	4	2023
17569	2.7 mi	3	2023
19501	3.6 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.