BMIE Market 17520

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,040 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±262 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,212 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,686 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,844 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$93,235 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,848 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,362 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$265,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,201 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17520
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-36.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-22.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 4–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.34) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	12 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17520. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.34, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.2	67	40%	+26.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.1	45	35%	+15.8
Market Momentum Score	12.3	12	25%	+3.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,040	61	40%	+24.2
Median household income (ACS)	93,235	76	40%	+30.5
Households (ACS)	2,212	63	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.9	57	25%	+14.2
Population (ACS)	5,040	61	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	93,235	76	20%	+15.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 12 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-36.4	8	50%	+3.8
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 3 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Belly's BBQ & Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5503 Main St	open
Biggs BBQ & Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2005 Miller Rd	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream - East Petersburg	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1991 Miller Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	5300 Main St	open
China 3	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	5513 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2006 Miller Rd	open
East Petersburg Civic Grounds	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee		open
Family Fare Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5821 Main St.	open
Gargano's Pizzeria & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	5997 Main St	open
Geneva Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6030 Lemon St	open
Josie's Pub	Casual dining · Bar		6049 Main St	open
Mad Chef Craft Brewing	Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar		2023 Miller Rd	open
Philadelphia Hoagie Co.	Other	Sandwiches	5507 Main St	open
Son's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1991 Miller Rd	open
Two Cousins	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5313 B, 5313 Main St a	open
Walk-O Taco	Food truck · Catering	Mexican		open
George’s Jersey Deli Llc.	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	5982 Main St	closed
Haydn Zug's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1987 State St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	8	3	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	4	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	3	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	3	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	3	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	10	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	10	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	10	2	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	2	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	2	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	12	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17520. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17601	2.5 mi	144	2023
17606	2.6 mi	1	2010
17538	3.6 mi	5	2023
17603	4.7 mi	145	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.