BMIE Market 17527

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,094 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±689 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,995 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±203 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,080 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,950 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$94,788 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,468 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,250 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$324,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,542 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17527
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	28.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-21.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 7–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.28) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17527. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.28, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.6	69	40%	+27.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.3	47	35%	+16.5
Market Momentum Score	49.8	50	25%	+12.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,094	64	40%	+25.4
Median household income (ACS)	94,788	77	40%	+30.9
Households (ACS)	1,995	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	24.6	27	25%	+6.8
Population (ACS)	6,094	64	20%	+12.7
Median household income (ACS)	94,788	77	20%	+15.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.4	73	50%	+36.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-21.1	13	20%	+2.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Filipino 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alessio Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5360 Lincoln Hwy	open
Central Culture Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	841 PA-41, 5360 Reservoir Rd	open
Ciao Pizza Pasta & Panini	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5360 Lincoln Hwy	open
Coconut Hut	Catering	Filipino	5328 Lincoln Hwy	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	5387 Lincoln Hwy Hess	open
Dutch-way Family Restaurant - Gap	Buffet		365 Route 41	open
Gap diner reviews and suggestions	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	780 Route 41	open
Godfathers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5387 Lincoln Hwy	open
Golden Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5360 Lincoln Hwy	open
Happy Rooster Saloon	Casual dining · Bar		334 PA-41	open
McClure's Country Maid Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Bakery	18 Newport Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5328 Lincoln Hwy	open
Pizza Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	20 Newport Pike	open
Rere's Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1404 W Kings Hwy	open
Rita's Italian Ice Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Dessert	5360 Lincoln Hwy	open
Rita’s of Gap PA Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Shady Maple	Café	Coffee	835 Houston Run Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	5360 Lincoln Hwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5360 Lincoln Hwy Ste 1	open
The Brass Eagle Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining	American	5725 Lincoln Hwy	open
The Cellar Pub	Bar		5267 Lincoln Hwy	open
The Houston Co Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	835 Houston Run Dr	open
Village Gap Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5360 Lincoln Hwy	open
W. G. Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5725 Lincoln Hwy	open
White Horse Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5589 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
White Horse Luncheonette	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5562 Old Philadelphia Pike	open
Vim Pizza & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5351 Lincoln Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	17	17	7	4	6	—	NAICS1997
1999	17	16	6	5	5	—	NAICS1997
2000	18	16	6	5	5	—	NAICS1997
2001	19	18	8	5	5	—	NAICS1997
2002	20	19	7	6	6	—	NAICS1997
2003	20	19	8	9	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	21	19	9	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	18	17	7	7	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	21	21	8	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	17	7	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	17	17	8	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	18	11	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	3	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	15	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17527. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17535	2.2 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.