BMIE Market 17551

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,753 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±775 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,608 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±361 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,857 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,622 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,661 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,473 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	23.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,485 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±197 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$287,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,856 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	10.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17551
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+30.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 12–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17551. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.1	61	40%	+24.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.5	65	35%	+22.9
Market Momentum Score	39.9	40	25%	+10.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,753	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	68,661	45	40%	+17.9
Households (ACS)	3,608	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	35%	+24.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.1	68	25%	+17.0
Population (ACS)	11,753	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	68,661	45	20%	+9.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-13.3	16	50%	+8.2
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	30%	+21.3
20-year restaurant growth	30	52	20%	+10.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 4 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Buffet 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Benson's Snack Service	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	314 N Prince St	open
Bert's Bottle Shop, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		369 Comet Dr	open
Brendee's Irish Pub	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	97 E Charlotte St	open
Cactus Cafe	Café	Coffee · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American	2 S Prince St	open
Chick-fil-A	Quick service		29 Shenks Lane	open
China Wok Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	345 Comet Dr	open
Copper Hill Public House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 Crossland Pass	open
Crossgates Grill & Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 Crossland Pass	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	519 B Leaman Ave	open
El Toro Barbacoa	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Blue Rock Rd	open
Front Porch Baking Co.	Bakery	Bakery	513 Leaman Ave	open
House of Pizza	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Italian	101 W Frederick St	open
Jack's Family Tavern and Restaurant Jack's	Casual dining · Bar	American	15 S Prince St	open
Javateas Gourmet Coffee Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 S Prince St	open
Koshary Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	4 S Prince St	open
Phantom Power	Brewery / taproom		121 W Frederick St	open
Poké Bowl Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)		367 Comet Dr	open
Raney Cellars Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		11 Manor Ave	open
Saxbys Millersville University	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Sandwiches	Gordinier Hall, 30 South George St	open
Sdg Organs	Restaurant (service type not stated)		190 W Charlotte St	open
Smith Food Services Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		240 Manor Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	240 Manor Ave	open
Sugar Bowl Millersville	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	9 Normal Ave	open
Terra Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Crossland Pass	open
The Galley	Buffet		1 South George St.	open
The Original Nino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11 Manor Ave	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Sandwiches · Coffee	341 Comet Drive	open
Two Cousins Pizza Millersville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	115 Manor Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	12	3	8	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	14	13	3	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	3	7	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	13	11	3	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	2	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	14	13	8	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17551. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17516	3.6 mi	1	2016
17504	4.0 mi	1	1999
17603	4.3 mi	145	2023
17582	4.4 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.