BMIE Market 17566

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,603 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±721 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,327 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,019 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,245 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,108 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,101 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,297 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±137 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$306,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,558 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	59.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17566
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-17.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 12–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17566. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.9	68	40%	+27.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48.8	49	35%	+17.1
Market Momentum Score	19.0	19	25%	+4.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,603	74	40%	+29.6
Median household income (ACS)	78,108	60	40%	+23.8
Households (ACS)	4,327	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-17.7	15	35%	+5.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.1	68	25%	+17.0
Population (ACS)	12,603	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	78,108	60	20%	+11.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-30	9	50%	+4.5
10-year restaurant growth	-17.7	15	30%	+4.4
20-year restaurant growth	27.3	50	20%	+10.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 8 · Coffee 7 · Italian 6 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Coffee shop 6 · Bar 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Quick service 2 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ancient Order of Croaking Frogs	Bar		300 Park Ave	open
Britain Hill Venue & Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		790 Little Britain Rd N	open
Bulldawg BBQ, LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	Eden Road	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	50 Townsedge Dr	open
C.R. Lapp's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	101 Fite Way	open
Crossroads Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1300 Georgetown Rd	open
Dan's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	146 Hess Rd	open
Dolce Vita Pizzeria and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Italian · Pizza	33 Friendly Dr C	open
Dottie's Snack Bar	Dessert · Food truck	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	425 W 4th St	open
Drumore Diner	Casual dining	American	1426 Lancaster Pike	open
Eagle Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1027 Lancaster Pike	open
Freezy Barn	Coffee shop	Coffee	35 Friendly Dr	open
Grandmom Shrom's Sandtarts	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert		open
Green Tree Inn Restaurant	Bar		11 Greentree Rd	open
Hecho A Mano Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	201 E State St	open
Hometown Kitchen	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	18 Furnace Rd	open
House Sale Advisors Real Estate	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	434 W 4th St	open
J & B Hotel	Bar · Casual dining		26 E State St	open
Javataza Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	319 Conowingo Rd	open
Nolt Bakery Supplies	Restaurant (service type not stated)		724 Truce Rd	open
Papa Joe's Pizza And Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1027 Lancaster Pike	open
Pasquales V of Little Britain	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	399 Nottingham Rd	open
Peking	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	144 Townsedge Dr	open
Pop's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1426 Lancaster Pike	open
Pour Girls Restaurant and Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		11 Green Tree Rd, Unit NA	open
Quarryville Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	134 E State St	open
RD's American Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1426 Lancaster Pike	open
Rosie's Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	827 Lancaster Pike	open
S & F Mazzola Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 E State St	open
Sam's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2 E State St	open
Son's Italian Ice	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	5 S Hess St Ste S	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	55 Friendly Dr	open
Taqueria La Mexicana LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	201 E State St	open
The Coffee Chalet	Coffee shop	Coffee	1191 Lancaster Pike	open
The Daily Grind Quarryville	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1 N Church St	open
The Gallery Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	653 Scotland Rd	open
Two Cousins Pizza Two Cousins Pizza-Quarryville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	112 Townsedge Dr	open
Village Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	201 E State St	open
Valley View Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1426 Lancaster Pike	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	13	11	4	7	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	13	11	4	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	12	10	3	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	12	9	3	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	3	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	11	2	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	15	13	3	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	3	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	17	16	4	11	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	17	15	5	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	17	15	4	10	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	19	16	5	10	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	16	15	5	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	16	6	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	18	17	6	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	19	18	7	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	18	17	7	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	20	19	7	9	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	21	20	7	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	17	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	17	7	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	7	8	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17566. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17536	4.1 mi	1	2006

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.