BMIE Market 17584

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,646 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,159 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,770 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±375 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,957 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,859 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,723 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,291 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±597 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$309,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,284 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17584
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+45.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.59) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17584. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.59, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.3	78	40%	+31.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.8	74	35%	+25.8
Market Momentum Score	74.1	74	25%	+18.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,646	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	108,723	86	40%	+34.4
Households (ACS)	4,770	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	45.5	79	35%	+27.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.7	57	25%	+14.4
Population (ACS)	11,646	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	108,723	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	45.5	79	30%	+23.7
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

Pizza 5 · American 4 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Japanese 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Casual dining 4 · Quick service 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bailey's Bake Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6 Beaver Valley Pike	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2600 Willow Street Pike	open
Caruso's Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2933 Willow Street Pike	open
Elsabor de la Garnacha	Food truck		2845 Willow Street Pike	open
Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2819F Willow Street Pike N	open
Georges Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2600 T-Mobile N	open
Golden Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2600 Willow Street Pike #304	open
Got Jerk Island Grill Express	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Caribbean · American	2504 Willow Street Pike	open
Lancaster County Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		799 Rawlinsville Rd	open
Mick's All American Pub Mick's All American Pub, Mt. Joy	Bar · Casual dining		2428 Willow Street Pike	open
New Golden Wall Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2600 Willow Street Pike N	open
Pequea Valley Hotel	Bar		2979 Shiprock Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2600 Willow Street Pike North Lancaster	open
Sals Restaurant And Pizzeria Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Sandwiches · Pizza	2600 Willow Street Pike N	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2930 Willow Street Pike N	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2600 N Willow St Pike Suite 302	open
Super Tacos Food Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2915 Willow Street Pike	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2600 T-Mobile N	open
Two Cousins Pizza Two Cousins Pizza-Quarryville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2845 Willow Street Pike	open
Wacker Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		308 Beaver Valley Pike	open
Wacker's Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)		312 Beaver Valley Pike	open
Wasabi Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2600 T-Mobile N	open
Willow Street Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2601 Willow Street Pike N	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	2	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	14	12	3	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	15	13	4	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	3	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	2	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	2	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	3	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	12	3	9	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	3	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	16	14	3	11	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	3	10	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	16	14	4	10	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	15	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	—	13	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17584. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17568	1.8 mi	—
17560	3.8 mi	1	2016
17602	3.9 mi	90	2023
17579	4.5 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.