BMIE Market 17824

Columbia County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,949 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,668 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±149 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,115 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,944 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$118,176 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,991 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$244,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,448 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17824
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.26) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17824. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.26, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.2	70	40%	+28.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.7	44	35%	+15.3
Market Momentum Score	16.2	16	25%	+4.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,949	57	40%	+22.7
Median household income (ACS)	118,176	90	40%	+35.9
Households (ACS)	1,668	58	20%	+11.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.7	43	25%	+10.9
Population (ACS)	3,949	57	20%	+11.3
Median household income (ACS)	118,176	90	20%	+17.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-30	9	50%	+4.5
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · BBQ 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 4 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Buffet 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alamo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Mexican	391 Knoebels Blvd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	319 S Market St	open
Knoebels French Fries	Quick service		Pine Swamp Rd Elysburg, PA 17824 USA	open
La Jaunt Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	409 W Valley Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1 West Valley Avenue	open
Oip Express	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		31 S Market St	open
Original Italian Pizza and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	114 Northumberland Dr	open
Patio Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	391 Knoebels Blvd	open
Picarella's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	851 W Valley Ave	open
Profile Coffee and Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	185 S Market St	open
Starbucks Express Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	391 Knoebels Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	160 W Valley Ave	open
The Country Corner Cafe	Café · Buffet	Breakfast · Coffee	160 S Market St	open
The Nickle Plate Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	954 PA-487	open
The Old Mill Ice Cream Stand SOFT ≈ Ice cream	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · BBQ · Bakery · American	391 Knoebels Blvd	open
Timber Creek Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1045 W Valley Ave	open
Tony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	160 S Market St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17824. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17858	4.0 mi	—
17832	4.7 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.