BMIE Market 17847

Northumberland County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,260 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±376 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,969 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±291 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,051 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,597 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$58,775 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,056 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$904 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$197,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,208 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17847
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+18.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+11.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 18–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	45 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17847. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.9	55	40%	+21.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.2	49	35%	+17.2
Market Momentum Score	44.9	45	25%	+11.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,260	73	40%	+29.0
Median household income (ACS)	58,775	28	40%	+11.0
Households (ACS)	4,969	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	5.6	50	35%	+17.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.9	46	25%	+11.6
Population (ACS)	11,260	73	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	58,775	28	20%	+5.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	5.6	50	30%	+15.1
20-year restaurant growth	18.8	45	20%	+9.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

American 12 · Sandwiches 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee 4 · Burgers 3 · Pizza 3 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Bar 10 · Casual dining 10 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 5 · Café 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Legion Post 841	Bar		Railroad St	open
Arm Bar	Bar · Casual dining		300 Cameron Ave	open
Arrowhead Bar & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		8215 State Route 405	open
Baked By Brina	Bakery	Bakery	54 S Front St	open
Becky's Soft-Serve	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7880 PA-405	open
Blue Spruce Inn	Casual dining · Bar		4635 State Route 405	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	899 Carpenter Rd	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	31 Broadway St	open
Crossroads Care Center	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	71 Nazarene Ln #3	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5120 State Route 405	open
Good Wil's \| Restaurant & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · American	24 Weaver Ln	open
Jade Palace Restaurant	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	620 S Front St	open
Klees Korner	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery · American	281 Hepburn St	open
L.T.'s Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1115 State Route 405	open
Lisa's Milltown Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	48 Broadway St	open
Malakai's Lemonade Stand	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		130 Upper Market St	open
Marlin's of Milton	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	129 S Front St	open
May's Drive-In Lewisburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	2675 PA-405	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	35 Bound Ave	open
Milton Moose	Bar		139 S Front St	open
Mirellas Fine Cakes & Pastries	Bakery	Bakery	54 S Front St	open
Once Upon A Whisk	Bakery	Bakery	54 S Front St	open
Original Italian Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	32 Broadway St	open
Penn 80 Truckstop (the old Petro)	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches	1460 N Ridge Rd	open
Pete's on Broadway	Bar		15 Broadway St	open
Pizza Town	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	530 S Front St	open
Randalls West Branch Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		741 S Front St	open
Restaurante Casa de Fe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		21 Broadway St	open
Speedy's	Bar		39 S Arch St	open
Spikes Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	27 Broadway St	open
Sublicious	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches	5060-5098 Front St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	22 Broadway St	open
Susquehanna Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1115 PA-405	open
Sweetzone	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	60 S Front St	open
Tastecraft Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	41 Broadway St	open
The Arrowhead Drive-In Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8125 State Route 405	open
The Fence Drive In	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1605 PA-405	open
The Two Owls	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	14 Broadway St	open
The Well Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	363 Stamm Rd	open
Todd E. Sowers Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24 Weavers Ln	open
Ye Olde Meeting Place	Casual dining · Bar		8350 PA-405	open
Zeke's & Stamm's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		1390 Broadway Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	17	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	23	18	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	27	22	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	22	18	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	28	24	14	8	2	4	NAICS1997
1999	26	21	13	6	2	4	NAICS1997
2000	27	22	12	8	2	4	NAICS1997
2001	24	20	10	8	2	4	NAICS1997
2002	22	18	7	10	1	4	NAICS1997
2003	22	16	5	11	—	6	NAICS2002
2004	24	17	5	12	—	7	NAICS2002
2005	20	15	6	9	—	5	NAICS2002
2006	20	15	7	8	—	5	NAICS2002
2007	22	16	7	9	—	6	NAICS2002
2008	24	17	10	7	—	7	NAICS2007
2009	23	16	10	6	—	7	NAICS2007
2010	23	16	8	7	1	7	NAICS2007
2011	25	17	7	9	1	8	NAICS2007
2012	23	16	7	8	1	7	NAICS2012
2013	26	18	8	9	1	8	NAICS2012
2014	24	15	7	7	1	9	NAICS2012
2015	24	16	8	7	1	8	NAICS2012
2016	27	19	7	11	1	8	NAICS2012
2017	28	19	8	10	—	8	NAICS2017
2018	27	19	7	10	—	8	NAICS2017
2019	29	20	7	11	—	8	NAICS2017
2020	29	20	8	11	—	8	NAICS2017
2021	28	21	9	11	—	6	NAICS2017
2022	25	18	6	11	—	7	NAICS2022
2023	26	19	6	12	—	7	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17847. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17865	1.8 mi	—
17886	3.5 mi	1	2016
17850	3.8 mi	1	2010
17749	4.4 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.