BMIE Market 17857

Northumberland County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,671 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,470 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±137 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,505 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,536 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,298 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,757 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$963 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±134 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$202,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,120 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17857
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-46.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-36.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.50) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	9 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17857. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.50, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.7	58	40%	+23.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.4	43	35%	+15.2
Market Momentum Score	8.7	9	25%	+2.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,671	67	40%	+26.7
Median household income (ACS)	67,298	43	40%	+17.1
Households (ACS)	3,470	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-46.2	7	35%	+2.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.1	76	25%	+18.9
Population (ACS)	7,671	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	67,298	43	20%	+8.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 9 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-30	9	50%	+4.5
10-year restaurant growth	-46.2	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	-30	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amato's Pizza & Family Restaurant - Northumberland Amato's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	345 Duke St	open
APlus at Sunoco	Coffee shop	Coffee	303 Duke St	open
Atw	Bar		Northumberland, PA 17857	open
Bimbo Bakeries USA Bimbo Bakeries USA	Bakery · Quick service	Bakery	500 Hanover St	open
Buddy Boy Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3169 Point Township Dr	open
CUMC Cornerstone Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	117 King St	open
Daddy McFatty's	Bar		95 Queen St	open
El Rancho Restaurant & Lounge Inc	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican · Sandwiches	712 Point Township Dr	open
Front Street Station	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	2 Front St	open
Grumpy's Mason Jar	Bar		101 Front St	open
Heff & Beeb's	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	168 Queen St	open
Keeley's Confections	Dessert	Dessert	165 Leed St	open
Matteo’s Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1057 Point Township Dr	open
Mountainside Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	750 Point Township Dr	open
On A Roll	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	92 Queen St	open
Pineknotter Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		254 Front St	open
Ric-Mar Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2563 Point Township Dr	open
Shake Your Buns and do the Twist	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		548 2nd St	open
Star Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Chinese · Asian	234 Duke St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	119 Duke Street	open
The Grindstone	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	212 Front St	open
Washington Tavern Inc	Bar · Casual dining		10 King St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	13	11	8	3	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	12	10	7	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	11	8	7	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	12	9	8	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	8	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	7	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	7	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	7	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	8	7	—	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	10	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	11	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	9	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	13	11	9	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	15	13	11	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	15	13	10	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	8	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	8	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	14	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	14	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17857. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17865	3.9 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.