BMIE Market 19021

Bucks County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,638 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±764 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,909 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±319 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,074 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,965 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$70,199 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,718 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,312 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±167 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$293,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,335 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 19021
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+112.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.53) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	63 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 19021. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.53, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.1	61	40%	+24.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.4	54	35%	+19.0
Market Momentum Score	63.3	63	25%	+15.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,638	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	70,199	47	40%	+18.9
Households (ACS)	3,909	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	13.3	57	35%	+20.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.6	44	25%	+11.0
Population (ACS)	9,638	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	70,199	47	20%	+9.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.3	71	50%	+35.7
10-year restaurant growth	13.3	57	30%	+17.1
20-year restaurant growth	30.8	52	20%	+10.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Breakfast 3 · Coffee 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 8 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bull Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		2820 State Rd	open
Casa Nuestra Cigars	Bar		813 State Rd.	open
Checkers Bristol Pike Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · American	399 Bristol Pike	open
China Wok Restaurant China Wok, Altavista Va.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	316 Bristol Pike	open
Croydon Key Bar Lounge & Spa	Bar			open
Croydon Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	808 State Rd	open
Dog & Bull Taphouse and Kitchen	Casual dining · Bar		810 Bristol Pike	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	801 Bristol Pike	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	308 Bristol Pike	open
El Paso	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2209 Bristol Pike	open
El Patron El Patrón	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	417 State Rd.	open
Friendly Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	502 State Rd	open
Fritz's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	500 State Rd	open
Gaetano's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	709 Bristol Pike	open
Giovanni's DILLicious Pickles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	802 Bristol Pike	open
King's China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	717 State Rd	open
La Choza Restaurant Latin Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	710 State Rd	open
La Vera Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	616 State Rd	open
Mike's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	203 State Rd	open
Neshaminy Creek Brewing Co Neshaminy Creek Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		909 Ray Ave	open
O'Fowley's Tavern & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	200 State Rd	open
Old Croydon Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	1318 State Rd	open
Patrick's Pub & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		505 Bristol Pike	open
Plaza Lavash	Bakery	Bakery · Middle Eastern · German / Eastern European	1000 Washington Ave	open
Ricks Tiki Bar	Bar		712 2nd Ave	open
Rita's Italian Ice and Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	409 Bristol Pike	open
Rita’s of Croydon PA Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Ron's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		298 Bristol Pike	open
Sandwich Club	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	105 Newportville Rd	open
Sarappo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	304 Bristol Pike	open
Smokerhead Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	417 State Rd	open
South Philly Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		304 Bristol Pike	open
State Road DeliMarket	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2518 State Rd.	open
Sunrise Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	416 Bristol Pike	open
TacoBaya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2209 Bristol Pike	open
The Bull	Bar		2820 State Rd	open
The Kraken Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar			open
VFW Croydon	Bar		999 Bellevue Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	8	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	16	14	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	17	11	6	5	—	4	NAICS1997
1999	19	12	7	5	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	18	12	7	5	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	19	12	8	4	—	5	NAICS1997
2002	19	12	7	5	—	6	NAICS1997
2003	19	13	10	2	1	5	NAICS2002
2004	20	12	7	3	1	7	NAICS2002
2005	22	16	9	5	1	5	NAICS2002
2006	19	14	7	5	1	4	NAICS2002
2007	21	15	7	6	1	5	NAICS2002
2008	22	15	8	5	1	7	NAICS2007
2009	19	15	7	6	1	4	NAICS2007
2010	19	14	7	4	2	5	NAICS2007
2011	18	14	6	6	2	4	NAICS2007
2012	18	14	6	8	—	4	NAICS2012
2013	19	15	6	9	—	4	NAICS2012
2014	18	14	6	8	—	4	NAICS2012
2015	20	15	6	9	—	5	NAICS2012
2016	19	15	6	9	—	4	NAICS2012
2017	18	14	6	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	18	15	6	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	18	14	6	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	20	17	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	16	7	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	21	17	7	8	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	20	17	8	8	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 19021. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
19020	2.5 mi	141	2023
19007	2.7 mi	48	2023
08010	2.8 mi	15	2023
08016	3.5 mi	69	2023
19057	4.1 mi	28	2023
19056	4.2 mi	27	2023
08046	4.2 mi	26	2023
19154	4.7 mi	35	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.