BMIE Market 19344

Chester County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,827 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±676 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,555 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,919 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,436 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,145 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,490 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$321,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,869 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 19344
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	33 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 19344. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.4	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.8	60	35%	+20.9
Market Momentum Score	33.4	33	25%	+8.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,827	74	40%	+29.7
Median household income (ACS)	86,890	70	40%	+28.1
Households (ACS)	4,555	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.4	75	25%	+18.7
Population (ACS)	12,827	74	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	86,890	70	20%	+14.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	71.4	75	20%	+15.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 6 · Pizza 6 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Slice Of Brooklyn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Pizza	3125 Horseshoe Pike, 3125 Horseshoe Pike	open
Bakery Feeds Honeybrook, Pa	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	97 Westbrook Dr	open
Compass Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Breakfast · American	3060 Compass Rd	open
Coopers Express Fried Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4621 Horseshoe Pike	open
Denny's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	125 Red Oak Ct	open
Greenside Grill at Honeybrook	Bar · Casual dining		1420 Cambridge Rd	open
Honey Brook Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3298 Compass Rd	open
Honey Brook Warehouse & Coffee District	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4171 Horseshoe Pike	open
Honeybrook	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Jerry's Pizza Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5006 Horseshoe Pike	open
Just Mom's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1050 N Manor Rd	open
Little Anthony's Pizza & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	21 Cupola Rd	open
Little Barn Noodles	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	3140 Compass Rd	open
Lucky Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4671 Horseshoe Pike	open
Papa Mark's Pizza & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	3875 Horseshoe Pike	open
Pasquale's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3060 Compass Rd	open
Suburban Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom		2536 Conestoga Ave.	open
Suburban Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		3041 Horseshoe Pike	open
The Long Way Home	Casual dining · Bar	American	4690 Horseshoe Pike	open
VK Brewing Fairway Taphouse	Casual dining · Bar		1839 Horseshoe Pike	open
Wimpy & Dee's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	5051 Horseshoe Pike	open
Brookside Burger Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3845 Horseshoe Pike	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	7	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	7	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	14	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 19344. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
19316	3.2 mi	—
17555	4.9 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.