BMIE Market 20115

Fauquier County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,173 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±915 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,958 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,838 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,522 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$142,981 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,024 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,777 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±292 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$657,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42,690 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	98.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20115
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+71.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 13–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	80 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20115. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.6	79	40%	+31.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.9	77	35%	+26.9
Market Momentum Score	80.1	80	25%	+20.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,173	68	40%	+27.1
Median household income (ACS)	142,981	95	40%	+38.1
Households (ACS)	2,958	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	71.4	88	35%	+30.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.7	54	25%	+13.5
Population (ACS)	8,173	68	20%	+13.6
Median household income (ACS)	142,981	95	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	71.4	88	30%	+26.5
20-year restaurant growth	71.4	75	20%	+15.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Casual dining 4 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Als Translations	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8375 W Main St	open
Anthony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4197 Winchester Rd	open
Anthony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4197 Winchester Rd	open
Bad Ass Pickles	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	8414 W Main St	open
Blue Mountain Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	8349 W Main St	open
Field & Main Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	8369 W Main St	open
Flying Heron Herbs Spices & Teas	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	8383 W Main St	open
Foster's Grille Foster's Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	Winchester Rd	open
Half Past Moon Coffee Buzz	Café	Coffee	8375 W Main St	open
Hunt Country Foods	Bakery	Bakery	4559 Achilles Ln	open
Joe's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	8349 W Main St	open
Marshall	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4197 Winchester Rd # F	open
Marshall Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8453 W Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4215 Winchester Rd	open
Nicks Market and Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	8294 E Main St	open
Old Salem Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	4197 Winchester Rd	open
Orlean Market & Pub	Bar · Casual dining		6855 Leeds Manor Rd	open
Red Truck Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	8368 W Main St	open
Riccordino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	8369 W Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4197-F Winchester Road	open
Tapatios	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4221-B Frost St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	12	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	4	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20115. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.