BMIE Market 20117

Loudoun County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,790 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±629 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,263 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±253 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,693 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,469 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$146,120 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±49,330 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,843 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$937,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75,819 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	48.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20117
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	40.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+350.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.66) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20117. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.66, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.3	69	40%	+27.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.6	63	35%	+21.9
Market Momentum Score	68.1	68	25%	+17.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,790	51	40%	+20.4
Median household income (ACS)	146,120	96	40%	+38.3
Households (ACS)	1,263	53	20%	+10.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	32.3	18	25%	+4.5
Population (ACS)	2,790	51	20%	+10.2
Median household income (ACS)	146,120	96	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · Asian 3 · Pizza 3 · American 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Thai 2 · Bakery 1 · French 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 11 · Winery / distillery / taproom 7 · Café 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
50 West Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		39060 Little River Tpke	open
Animal Swim Center	Bar		35469 Millville Rd	open
Baden's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	23130 Briar Patch Ln	open
Best Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai	4 E Federal St	open
Boxwood Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2042 Burrland Ln	open
Cana Vineyards and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		38600 Little River Tpke	open
CDMX Mexican Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	16 E Washington St	open
Chrysalis Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		39025 Little River Tpke	open
Church Street Creole Cafe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		209 E Washington St # 1888	open
Cuppa Giddy Up	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	8 E Washington St	open
Gold Cup Wine Bar	Bar		500 N Pendleton St	open
Goodstone Inn & Restaurant The Elimatta Hotel	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36205 Snake Hill Rd	open
Greenhill Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		23595 Winery Ln	open
Harrimans Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	500 N Pendleton St	open
King Street Oyster Bar King Street Oyster Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1 E Washington St	open
Knead Wine	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5 W Washington St	open
Lost Barrel Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		36138 Little River Tpke	open
Middleburg Common Grounds	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	114 W Washington St	open
Middleburg Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2 N Liberty St	open
Mt. Defiance Cidery and Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		207 W Washington St	open
Nomad	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 S Madison St	open
Piedmont Drip & Dip Co	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	6 W Washington St	open
Popcorn Monkey	Quick service		2 1/2 E. Federal St	open
Red Bar Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	16 E Washington St	open
Red Horse Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		118 W Washington St	open
Scruffy's Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6 W Washington St	open
Spark Performance And Coaching	Restaurant (service type not stated)		116 W Washington St	open
Teddy's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	9 E Federal St	open
Thaiverse Restaurant Middleburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	101 S Madison St	open
The Ag District Center at Chrysalis Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
The French Hound	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	101 S Madison St.	open
The Upper Crust	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2 N Pendleton St	open
Tremolo Bar	Bar · Café	Coffee	19 E Washington St	open
Trotters Perk Bistro	Casual dining		16 E. Washington Street	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20117. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.