BMIE Market 20119
Fauquier County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 3,416 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±687 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 1,275 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±212 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 3,946 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 1,515 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $115,757 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,983 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 48.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,747 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±258 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $560,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±71,233 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 64.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 1 2004 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2004 detail (NAICS2002) · by USPS ZIP 20119 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | Not yet derived |
| Projected restaurants, 5 years ahead | Not enough history to project |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20119. Not enough history for a projection.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 74 (Medium confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 68 | 68 | 40% | +36.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 81.6 | 82 | 35% | +38.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 3,416 | 54 | 40% | +21.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 115,757 | 89 | 40% | +35.6 |
| Households (ACS) | 1,275 | 54 | 20% | +10.7 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (Medium confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 2.9 | 98 | 25% | +37.5 |
| Population (ACS) | 3,416 | 54 | 20% | +16.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 115,757 | 89 | 20% | +27.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (6)
By cuisine
Chicken / wings 2 · Pizza 2 · American 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champs Chicken Champs Chicken | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Chicken / wings · American | 3390 Catlett Rd | open |
| Feisty Fox Farm & Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom | open | ||
| Hangar 54 Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Chicken / wings | 3390 Catlett Rd | open |
| La Chiquita Mart and Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Latin American (other) · Sandwiches | 4133 Catlett Rd | open |
| Morais Vineyards and Winery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 4002 Catlett Rd | open | |
| The Manor House Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 9245 Rogues Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | NAICS2002 |
Nearby markets (within 5 miles)
| ZCTA | Distance | Restaurants | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22728 | 4.3 mi | 1 | 1995 |