BMIE Market 20132

Loudoun County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,817 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,381 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,900 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,466 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$181,875 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,641 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,253 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$776,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37,949 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	84.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	44 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20132
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+29.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+266.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+4,300.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	48 (range 44–52) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20132. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.4	87	40%	+35.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.6	69	35%	+24.0
Market Momentum Score	74.2	74	25%	+18.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,817	81	40%	+32.5
Median household income (ACS)	181,875	98	40%	+39.4
Households (ACS)	6,381	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	29.4	71	35%	+24.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.2	32	25%	+8.0
Population (ACS)	19,817	81	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	181,875	98	20%	+19.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10	68	50%	+33.8
10-year restaurant growth	29.4	71	30%	+21.2
20-year restaurant growth	266.7	96	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (118)

By cuisine

American 15 · Coffee 15 · Pizza 8 · Dessert 7 · BBQ 6 · Mexican 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Chinese 3 · Italian 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Thai 2 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 47 · Bar 25 · Winery / distillery / taproom 19 · Quick service 15 · Coffee shop 13 · Brewery / taproom 12 · Casual dining 11 · Café 9 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Catering 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
868 Estate Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		14001 Harpers Ferry Rd	open
900 Degrees Brick Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	609 E Main St	open
Adroit Theory Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		404 Browning Ct	open
Anthony's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mediterranean	620 W Main St	open
Belly Love Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		725 E Main St	open
Bfc	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		201 Hirst Rd	open
Bia Kitchen	Casual dining · Bar	American	108 N 21st St	open
Big Mike's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	35972 Charles Town Pike	open
Big Mikes BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	37098 Charles Town Pike	open
Big Mikes BBQ	Catering	BBQ · American	121 N 21st Street	open
Bkd Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	130 Purcellville Gateway Dr	open
Blimpie	Quick service		37245 Jefferson Pike	open
Bozzo Family Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		35226 Charles Town Pike	open
Candyville Sweets	Dessert		101 S Maple Ave Ste E	open
Cardamon Family Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		12226 Harpers Ferry Rd	open
Casa Tequila Bar & Grill Casa Tequila Bar & Grill - Purcellville	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	1020 E Main St	open
Catoctin Creek Distilling Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		120 W Main St	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	165 Purcellville Gateway Dr	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1200 Wolf Rock Dr Ste 130	open
Coach's Corner	Bar · Casual dining	American	100 Purcellville Gateway Dr	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	1020 E Main St, # I	open
Coney Island Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	745 E Main St	open
Corcoran Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom		14635 Corkys Farm Ln	open
Dano's Italian Ice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	37200 Jefferson Pike	open
Dominion Tea	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	210 N 21st St Unit F	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	748 E. Main St.	open
Doppio Bunny Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	550 E Main St	open
Doukenie Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		14727 Mountain Rd	open
Dragon Hops Brewing	Brewery / taproom		130 E Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1200 Wolf Rock Dr	open
Dunkin' Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	609 E Main St	open
El Rancho Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	101 S Maple Ave Ste C	open
El Rancho Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	101 S Maple Ave	open
Elysium Axe Bar	Bar		251 N 21st St	open
Empress Pearl Milk Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	737 E Main St	open
Endhardt Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		19600 Lincoln Rd	open
Farm de Vine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		15960 Short Hill Rd	open
Finn Thai Purcellville Finn Thai Martinsburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	126 N Maple Ave	open
Frazer Drive Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	201 Frazer Dr	open
Goose Creek Farms & Winery Llc	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		18050 Tranquility Rd	open
Grandale Vintner's Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14001 Harpers Ferry Rd	open
Gruto's Soft Serve	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	141 W Main St	open
Happy Creek Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	550 E Main St	open
Hardware Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	131 N 21st St	open
Harmony Bakeshop & Coffehouse	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	201 N 23rd St	open
Harpers Ferry Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		37412 Adventure Center Ln	open
Harvest Gap Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		15485 Purcellville Rd	open
Haute Dogs & Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	609 E Main St	open
Hillsborough Vineyards & Brewery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		36716 Charles Town Pike	open
Hot Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1020 E Main St Ste M	open
IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1231 Wolf Rock Dr Ste 125	open
Jack's Run Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		108 N 21st St	open
Jay and Ed's seafood shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	Harry Byrd Hwy	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	150 B Purcellville Gateway Drive	open
Kalero Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		36140 Charles Town Pike	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings	201 E. Hirst Road	open
Koyo Ramen&BubbleTea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Japanese · Tea / bubble tea · Asian	609 E Main St	open
Loco Lion Brewery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar		36577 Heskett Ln	open
Lola’s Coffee Cart	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	18035 Lincoln Rd	open
Lothar’s Butchery & Gourmet Sausages	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	860 E Main St Ste. A	open
Lucky China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	119 N 21st St	open
Lulu Bell Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	17228 Pickwick Dr	open
Maggie’s Corner Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · American	713 E Main St	open
Magnolias at the Mill Magnolias at the Mill Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	198 N 21st St	open
Manhattan Pizza Purcellville Manhattan Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1211 Wolf Rock Dr	open
Market Burger Fries & Shakes	Quick service	Burgers · American	145 W Main St	open
Market in The Gap	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	37055 Charles Town Pike	open
Market Street Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1020 E Main St #I	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	121 N Maple Ave	open
McGilligan's Taco Cabana & Irish Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	119 E Main St	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	150 Purcellville Gateway Dr Ste 150-A	open
Monk's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	251 N 21st St	open
MooThru Hillsboro	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	37098 Charles Town Pike	open
My Deli & Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Greek · Sandwiches · Mediterranean	860 E Main St	open
Nery's Pupuseria	Quick service		609 E Main St	open
Notaviva Farm Brewery & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		13274 Sagle Rd	open
Old 690 Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		15670 Ashbury Church Rd	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop	Coffee	1210 Wolf Rock Dr	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	1020 E Main St	open
Patama Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	101 S Maple Ave # E	open
Pens Oriental Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	609 E Main St	open
Petit Domaine, Sparkling Winery & Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		37938 Charles Town Pike	open
Petit Lou-lou, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		713 E Main St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	101 S Maple Ave Ste B	open
Purcellville EATS	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	737 E Main St	open
Purcellville Family Restaurant	Casual dining	American	110 W Main St	open
Rbdj Enterprisesllc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Purcellville Gateway Dr	open
Roost	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1230 Wolf Rock Dr	open
Runey Construction Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)		210 N 21st St	open
Sdr Foods Of Wv, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		140B Purcellville Gateway Dr	open
Smokin Willy	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	201 N Maple Ave I	open
Solare Wine Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		131 E Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	140 Purcellville Gateway Dr	open
StoneHouse Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		36580 Shoemaker School Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	101 S Maple Ave Ste G	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	101 Maple Ave Unit G	open
Sunset Hills Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		38295 Fremont Overlook Ln	open
Sweet Rose Bakeshop	Bakery	Bakery	201 N 23rd St Unit E	open
sweetFrog sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	100 Purcellville Gateway Dr	open
The Chocolate Palette	Café · Coffee shop · Catering	Coffee	141 W Main St	open
The Kernel's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ	37205 Jefferson Pike	open
The Local Cut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	101 S Maple Ave Unit A and B	open
The Purcellville Pub	Bar	American	745 E Main St	open
The West End Wine Bar	Bar · Casual dining		36855 W Main St	open
Thewaffledude	Food truck			open
Tipped Cow Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	251 N 21st St	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	609 E Main St	open
Two Twisted Posts Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		12944 Harpers Ferry Rd	open
Velocity Wings	Casual dining · Bar	American	1020 E Main St	open
Virginia School of Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		36888 Breaux Vineyards Ln	open
Vocelli Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	721 E Main St	open
Walsh Family Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		16031 Hillsboro Rd	open
Wayside tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	37410 Adventure Center Ln	open
Your First Choice Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		721 E Main St	open
Crushed Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		37938 Charles Town Pike	closed
Gringo Gordo	Restaurant (service type not stated)		609 E Main St Unit N	closed
Maggie Malick Wine Caves	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12138 Harpers Ferry Rd	closed
Purcellville Coffee Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)		550 E Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	12	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	11	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	13	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	19	18	12	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	20	19	11	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	11	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	20	18	10	8	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	24	22	9	12	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	24	22	10	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	25	23	9	13	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	25	23	9	13	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	27	25	11	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	37	34	15	15	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	35	33	13	14	6	1	NAICS2012
2015	42	39	16	17	6	1	NAICS2012
2016	39	37	15	14	8	1	NAICS2012
2017	43	40	16	15	9	—	NAICS2017
2018	44	40	15	17	8	—	NAICS2017
2019	44	40	15	17	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	43	40	18	16	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	42	38	15	15	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	48	44	18	18	8	—	NAICS2022
2023	48	44	19	19	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20132. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20158	4.1 mi	3	2023
20141	4.6 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.