BMIE Market 20169

Prince William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	28,089 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,726 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,372 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±394 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,801 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,746 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$203,051 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,530 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,851 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$729,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,166 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	37.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20169
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+52.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+625.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,800.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 30–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20169. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.4	91	40%	+36.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.7	85	35%	+29.6
Market Momentum Score	66.1	66	25%	+16.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	28,089	87	40%	+35.0
Median household income (ACS)	203,051	99	40%	+39.6
Households (ACS)	9,372	84	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	52.6	85	35%	+29.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.3	71	25%	+17.8
Population (ACS)	28,089	87	20%	+17.5
Median household income (ACS)	203,051	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	52.6	85	30%	+25.4
20-year restaurant growth	625	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (86)

By cuisine

American 12 · Asian 9 · Coffee 9 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 7 · Mexican 7 · Pizza 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Italian 5 · Thai 4 · Chinese 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Breakfast 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Korean 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Quick service 18 · Bar 14 · Dessert 9 · Casual dining 8 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Café 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1971 Coffee Shop	Coffee shop	Coffee	15125 Washington St	open
Akt Nourish	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15111 Washington St.	open
Aroma II Tasting Room	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		14871 Washington St	open
Asian Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5451 Merchants View Sq	open
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Bakery · Quick service	Bakery	6530 Trading Square	open
Bebop Korean Mexican Grill Bebop Korean-Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Mexican	6410 Trading Sq	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	6613 Watts Rd	open
Burgerim	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5551 Merchants View Sq	open
Busaya Thai Haymarket	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	6448 Trading Sq	open
Checkers Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6530 Trading Square Haymarket, VA	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	15180 Washington St	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		14921 Heathcote Blvd	open
Cookies & Cream	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	14650 Washington St	open
Crossroads Cafe	Coffee shop · Casual dining · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café · Bar	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	15001 Washington St	open
Crumbl - Haymarket	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	6612 Watts Rd	open
Cupcake Heaven	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	6630 Jefferson St	open
Daily Grind	Coffee shop	Coffee	5311 Merchants View Sq	open
Deja Brew	Coffee shop	Coffee	5311 Merchants View Sq	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5491 Merchant View Square Suite 5	open
Dopo Ora	Bar		15120 Washington St	open
Duck Donuts Duck Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	6620 Watts Rd	open
Dunbri's Dessert Café	Dessert	Dessert	6410 Trading Sq	open
East Ocean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6438 Trading Sq	open
El Vaquero West El Vaquero West Restaurant LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	14910 Washington St	open
Ethel's New York Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Burgers	15111 Washington St #113	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches	15150 Washington St	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	6675 Turner Hill Rd.	open
Foster's Grille Foster's Grille Waldorf	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	4418 Costello Way	open
Frank	Food truck		5300 Merchants View Sq	open
Giuseppe's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	15120 Washington St	open
Great Mane Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		6620 James Madison Hwy	open
Haymarket Cafe	Café	Coffee	15225 Heathcote Blvd	open
Haymarket Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	15025 Washington St	open
Hidden Julles	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	14950 Washington St	open
Himalayan Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	6624 Watts Rd	open
Italian Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15120 Washington St	open
J & J Provisions, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15111 Washington St Ste 113	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6424 Trading Sq	open
K Kabob House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	6426 Trading Sq	open
Kung Fu Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	6616 Watts Rd	open
LaGrange Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	6428 Trading Sq	open
Locals Tacos & Tequila	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5311 Merchants View Sq	open
Lynch Concepts Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14950 Washington St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6740 Lea Berry Way	open
Mercy 786 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6426 Trading Sq	open
Milkberry Yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6410 Trading Sq	open
Monroe Bay Oysterette Eugene's Sausage & Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Hot dogs · American	15111 Washington St #113	open
Olde Dominion Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	5351 Merchants View Sq	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Quick service		14921 Heathcote Blvd	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6743 Lea Berry Way	open
Parrando's Tex-Mex Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	15125 Washington St	open
Pearmund Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4970 Antioch Rd	open
Penn Station East Coast Subs	Other	Sandwiches	6424 Trading Sq	open
Pho Thai 66	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Thai · Asian	6677 Turner Hill Rd	open
Pickle Bob's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	15401 Kapp Valley Way	open
Pizzarama	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	14950 Washington St	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6640 Watts Rd	open
Punto Pizza Punto Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6683 Turner Hl Rd	open
Red Bone	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14600 Washington St	open
Sakura Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	6412 Trading Sq	open
Shah's Halal Food Shah's Halal Food	Quick service		6617 Watts Rd	open
Smoothie King Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	6442 Trading Square	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	6422 Trading Sq	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	5581 Merchants View Sq	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5481 Merchants View Sq	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6747 Leaberry Way	open
Swirlies Soft Serve	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	15401 Kapp Valley Way	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	6635 Watts Rd.	open
Taqueria y Pupuseria Dany JG	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3485 James Madison Hwy	open
TEZ Indo American Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	14991 Shady Oak Ln	open
Thai Peppers Haymarket	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	5541 Merchants View Sq	open
The Lair of The Emerald Dragon	Bar			open
The Minion	Food truck · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	5551 Merchants View Sq	open
The Winery at La Grange	Winery / distillery / taproom		4970 Antioch Rd	open
Tony's New York Pizza Tony's New York Pizza, Bristow	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5361 Merchants View Sq	open
Trouvaille Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		14600 Washington St	open
Urban Kitchen Haymarket	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	6402 Trading Square	open
Valentino's Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6402 Trading Sq	open
Velocity Wings	Bar · Casual dining	Burgers	5311 Merchants View Sq	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	6530 Trading Sq	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service		6361 John James Way	open
Young Chow Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Chinese · Asian	6715 Lea Berry Way	open
Zandra's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Mexican · Chicken / wings · Juice / smoothies · American	14600 Washington St	open
まきのシークレット食堂	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Loopy Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	14600 Washington St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	3	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	18	5	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	19	6	9	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	23	22	9	9	4	1	NAICS2012
2015	23	22	9	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	26	25	10	11	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	29	26	9	12	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	32	29	11	12	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	26	24	9	12	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	27	26	11	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	29	27	12	12	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	31	28	12	13	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	32	29	11	15	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20169. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20143	4.3 mi	2	1999
20155	4.6 mi	81	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.