BMIE Market 20197

Loudoun County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,825 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±558 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	671 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±205 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,840 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	661 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$190,703 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±155,631 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$1,080,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±62,912 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20197
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2014 → 2019, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 2010 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 4–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2010–2023 (8 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.94) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	99 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20197. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2010–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.94, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.1	65	40%	+26.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.2	71	35%	+24.9
Market Momentum Score	99.1	99	25%	+24.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,825	43	40%	+17.2
Median household income (ACS)	190,703	99	40%	+39.5
Households (ACS)	671	42	20%	+8.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	300	99	35%	+34.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.9	33	25%	+8.2
Population (ACS)	1,825	43	20%	+8.6
Median household income (ACS)	190,703	99	20%	+19.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 99 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	200	99	50%	+61.9
10-year restaurant growth	300	99	30%	+37.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (9)

By cuisine

BBQ 2

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 7 · Bar 5 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 2 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
8 Chains North Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		38593 Daymont Ln	open
Carriage House Wineworks	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		40817 Browns Ln	open
Corcoran Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		14635 Corkys Farm Ln	open
Iron Will Winery and Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		38588 Charles Town Pike	open
Jules Caribbean BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	39810 Charles Town Pike	open
Monks BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	14635 Corkys Farm Ln	open
Terra Nebulo Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		39892 Old Wheatland Rd	open
The Wine Reserve at Waterford	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		38516 Charles Town Pike	open
Village Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		40405 Browns Ln	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2003	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2010	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2019	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20197. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20129	2.9 mi	1	2014
20158	4.2 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.