BMIE Market 20602

Charles County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	28,331 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,023 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,046 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±580 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,955 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,736 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,360 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,321 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,837 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±149 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$376,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,136 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20602
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+70.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+70.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 19–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.48) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20602. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.48, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.3	86	40%	+34.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.9	69	35%	+24.1
Market Momentum Score	46.3	46	25%	+11.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	28,331	88	40%	+35.1
Median household income (ACS)	107,360	85	40%	+34.1
Households (ACS)	10,046	86	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6	88	25%	+22.0
Population (ACS)	28,331	88	20%	+17.5
Median household income (ACS)	107,360	85	20%	+17.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	70	75	20%	+14.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · Italian 4 · American 3 · Chinese 3 · Coffee 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · African 1 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 6 · Quick service 6 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3242 Old Washington Rd	Bar		3242 Old Washington Rd	open
Beijing Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	343 Smallwood Dr	open
Bluedyer Distilling Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom		52 Industrial Park Dr Ste 15	open
Carrabba's Italian Grill Carrabba's Italian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian	3754 Crain Hwy	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		4576 Fairway Village Pl	open
Circus Ice Cream Inc	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	16 Irongate Dr	open
Dodah's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	152 Smallwood Village Ctr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	371 Smallwood Dr	open
Doubles BBQ & Soul Food Experience	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · African	3261 Old Washington Rd	open
Eggspectation - Waldorf	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	4575 Fairway Vlg Pl	open
Freshly Made 4U	Food truck			open
Golden Gate Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	175 Smallwood Village Ctr	open
Grille No. 13	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	351 Smallwood Dr	open
Jerry's Subs Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	171 Smallwood Village Ctr	open
Kobe Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Japanese · Sushi	171 Smallwood Village Ctr	open
Ledo Pizza Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11664 Billingsley Rd	open
Load Pro Logistics LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		401 Post Office Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		4526 Fairway Village Pl	open
MEEKS SPORTS BAR AND LOUNGE	Bar		3242 Old Washington Road	open
New Cafe China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3935 St Charles Pkwy	open
OBO Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	162 Smallwood Village Ctr	open
Patuxent Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		70 Industrial Park Dr Ste 2a	open
Pizza Boli's Pizza Boli's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3030 St Charles Pkwy	open
Quality Pizza Too	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	162 Smallwood Dr	open
Selby's Grab and Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	11672 Billingsley Rd	open
Simply Cakelicious	Bakery	Bakery	3981 Saint Charles Pkwy	open
Spice	Bar		3250 Old Washington Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4535 Fairway Village Pl	open
Starbucks at Smallwood Waldorf Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	Smallwood Dr, Waldorf, MD 20602, United States	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	10 King St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	158 Smallwood Village Ctr	open
Sugar Lips Cakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	351 Smallwood Dr	open
Superb Coffee & Vending, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3424 Gough Dr Unit 7	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	91 Smallwood Drive	open
Tastee Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Latin American (other)	335 Smallwood Dr	open
Tony's Pizza & Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	Smallwood Village Shopping Center, 34 Smallwood Village Center	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	2	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	13	3	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	12	3	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	16	5	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	16	6	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	20	17	6	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	16	7	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	15	6	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	20	16	5	9	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	20	17	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	17	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	19	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	19	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	27	20	9	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	20	10	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	17	8	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20602. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20601	3.3 mi	58	2023
20617	3.6 mi	1	1995
20695	4.6 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.