BMIE Market 20640

Charles County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,685 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±849 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,163 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±386 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,438 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,089 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$100,593 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,303 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±440 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$324,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,053 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	41.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20640
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-37.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	2 (range 1–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.47) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20640. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.47, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.6	76	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.1	59	35%	+20.7
Market Momentum Score	47.8	48	25%	+12.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,685	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	100,593	81	40%	+32.5
Households (ACS)	4,163	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.7	93	25%	+23.2
Population (ACS)	10,685	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	100,593	81	20%	+16.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 6 · BBQ 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Sandwiches 2 · African 1 · Asian 1 · Coffee 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blended Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls · Dessert	4840 Strauss Ave	open
Burner’s Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		4300 Hawthorne Rd	open
Calo Jero's Deli & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4356 Indian Head Hwy	open
Clarity Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4175 Indian Head Hwy	open
Coast & Soul Connections	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3330 Livingston Rd	open
County Manners	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	55 Mattingly Ave	open
Dale's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	4645 Indian Head Hwy	open
El Tucan Mexicano	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	4356 Indian Head Hwy	open
F.W. Kings BBQ & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	4345 Livingston Rd	open
Fords Wonder Bar	Bar		4595 Livingston Rd	open
George's Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	4840 Strauss Ave	open
Goodies Cafe Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4545 Indian Head Hwy	open
Grinder's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	4665 Indian Head Hwy	open
Michelle's Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4336 Indian Head Hwy	open
OBO Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4215 Indian Head Hwy	open
Panda Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	4205 Indian Head Hwy	open
Pisgah General Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7015 Poorhouse Rd	open
Slab O Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3360 Livingston Rd	open
Southern Belle	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	African · American	4356 Indian Head Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4609 Indian Head Hwy	open
Tasty Creations By Beth	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	307 Indian Head Ave	open
Tiki Bar	Bar · Casual dining		4309 Kings Ct	open
Woody's Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4300 Hawthorne Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	6	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	11	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	8	5	1	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	8	5	1	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	8	5	—	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	9	6	—	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	7	—	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	—	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	8	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	—	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	6	—	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20640. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20658	3.8 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.