BMIE Market 20659

St. Mary's County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,324 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,447 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±457 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,498 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,150 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,654 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,429 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,527 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±236 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$416,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,967 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	97.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20659
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 9–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20659. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.7	87	40%	+34.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.3	65	35%	+22.9
Market Momentum Score	38.5	38	25%	+9.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,324	85	40%	+33.9
Median household income (ACS)	121,654	91	40%	+36.3
Households (ACS)	8,300	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.1	95	25%	+23.6
Population (ACS)	24,324	85	20%	+17.0
Median household income (ACS)	121,654	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	42.9	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

American 11 · Pizza 4 · Seafood 4 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 8 · Quick service 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anchor Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	28943 Three Notch Rd	open
B's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	29133 Thompson Corner Rd	open
Berts 50s Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	Route 5	open
Big Dogs Paradise	Bar		2876 Three Notch Rd	open
Big Dogs Paradise Bar Grille and Liquor Store	Casual dining · Bar		28765 Three Notch Rd	open
Captain Leonard's Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	27301 Three Notch Rd	open
Charlotte Hall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	28976 Three Notch Rd	open
Corteau Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		38713 Golden Beach Rd	open
Dj&g Inc. T/a Bert's 50's Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28760 Three Notch Rd	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	30195 Triangle Dr	open
Drift Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	41310 Riverview Rd	open
Fiesta Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	28255 Three Notch Rd	open
Flerlage Crab Dock	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American		open
Follow The Sun Farm Stand	Bakery	Bakery	36171 Aviation Yacht Club Rd	open
Hot Pot Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	29255 Three Notch Rd	open
Kitchen Latrice Social Lounge & Bar	Bar		26130 Three Notch Rd	open
Knightlife sport club	Bar · Casual dining		26130 Three Notch Rd	open
La Tazza Coffee Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26945 Three Notch Rd	open
Ms Beth's Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	26579 S Sandgates Rd	open
P & S Country Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	29144 Thompson Corner Rd	open
Pizza Boli's	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert · Pizza	26945 Three Notch Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	30195 Triangle Drive	open
Rays 17 Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	29062 Three Notch Rd	open
Riverview at Wicomico Shores Golf Course	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	35794 Aviation Yacht Club Rd	open
Sandgates Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	27525 N Sandgates Rd	open
Seabreeze Restaurant & Crab House	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood	27130 S Sandgates Rd	open
Smokehouse BBQ Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	29084 Three Notch Rd	open
Southern Trail Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		27227 Morganza Turner Rd	open
St Mary's Landing	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	27605 Three Notch Rd	open
Standard Sweets	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	29251 Three Notch Rd	open
Stardust Lounge	Bar		26130 Three Notch Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	28270 Three Notch Rd	open
The Foxy Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	28976 Three Notch Rd	open
Tim's Chicken Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	23756 Zane Ct	open
Xella Winery and Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		26781 Laurel Grove Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	11	8	3	5	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	5	5	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20659. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20660	3.0 mi	—
20624	4.8 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.