BMIE Market 20754

Calvert County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,545 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,092 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,281 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±218 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,951 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,420 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$167,371 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,807 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,782 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$614,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,643 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	16.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20754
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+185.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+122.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 20–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20754. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.3	78	40%	+31.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.5	69	35%	+24.3
Market Momentum Score	88.4	88	25%	+22.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,545	67	40%	+26.6
Median household income (ACS)	167,371	98	40%	+39.0
Households (ACS)	2,281	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	26.5	24	25%	+6.1
Population (ACS)	7,545	67	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	167,371	98	20%	+19.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42.9	88	50%	+44.1
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	185.7	91	20%	+18.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

American 7 · Dessert 5 · Asian 4 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · BBQ 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Quick service 11 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ana Banana Sweet Treats and Confections	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	282 Southland Ct	open
Anthony's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	10371 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	10200 Kirksville Ln	open
C&r Ward Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10371 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Chesapeake Grille and Deli Chesapeake Grille & Deli - Dunkirk	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	American · Sandwiches	10092 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2989 Plaza Dr	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2985 Plaza Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	10367 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2981 Plaza Dr	open
East Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2973 Plaza Dr	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	10105 Ward Avenue	open
Fujiyama	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	10302 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Happy Cakes - gourmet cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	11235 Country Rd	open
Heavenly Chicken & Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	10812 Town Center Blvd	open
Jerry's Subs & Pizza Jerry's Subs & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	10290 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	10107 Ward Rd	open
Ledo Pizza Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10820 Town Center Blvd	open
Mamma Lucia Mamma's Pizza Canada	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	Italian · American	10136 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Marshall's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	2847-2861 W Chesapeake Beach Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10850 Town Center Blvd	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Pizza · Italian · Healthy / salads / bowls	10084 Dunkirk Way	open
Peri-Peri Original	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	10812 Town Center Blvd	open
Philly Flash	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2989 Plaza Dr	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	10840 Town Center Boulevard	open
Rita’s of Dunkirk MD Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	10331 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Shoe's Blues Crab Co.	Bar		1313 Squire Ln	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	Market Place, 10276 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2981 Plaza Dr	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10730 Town Center Blvd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	10090 Dunkirk Way	open
Tacos y Tortas Doña Maria #1 INC. Calvert County MD	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	11250 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Thai Zapp Restaurant and Grocery Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	10347 Southern Maryland Blvd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	10137 Ward Road	open
Whistle Stop Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1355 Jewell Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	10125 Ward Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	11	2	7	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	4	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	15	12	4	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	17	14	4	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	15	13	3	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	13	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	14	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	18	—	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	18	—	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	17	—	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	19	—	15	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	20	—	16	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20754. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20736	3.6 mi	3	2023
20758	3.6 mi	1	2016
20711	4.8 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.