BMIE Market 21005

Harford County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,202 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±437 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±127 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,112 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	760 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$125,208 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,644 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,087 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±84 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	33.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21005
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2017 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2012 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1998 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2027	4 (range 3–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2022 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21005. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2022, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	64.6	65	40%	+25.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.9	71	35%	+24.8
Market Momentum Score	64.1	64	25%	+16.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,202	47	40%	+18.6
Median household income (ACS)	125,208	92	40%	+36.7
Households (ACS)	835	46	20%	+9.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.6	58	25%	+14.5
Population (ACS)	2,202	47	20%	+9.3
Median household income (ACS)	125,208	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (11)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aberdeen PG Commissary	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	Building 3400 Aberdeen Blvd	open
Coffee N' Grain	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6487 Aberdeen Blvd	open
Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	Building 6002	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		6507 Aberdeen Blvd	open
First Sergeant's Smoked BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	6432 Ashbury St Bldg 3326	open
G Bistro & Café	Café	Coffee	6210 Guardian Gtwy	open
McShanes	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	6010 Frankford St	open
Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Harford Blvd, Building 2514	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	AAFES Foodcourt, Bldg #6007	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	Bldg 6002, G Bldg 6002	open
Top of the bay	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Bldg. 30, 6817 plum point Drive	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1998	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2007	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21005. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21130	4.2 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.