BMIE Market 21015
Harford County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 30,013 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,707 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 11,012 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±503 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 27,763 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,221 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $137,281 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,402 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 40.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,752 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $443,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,163 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 31.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 52 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21015 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 13.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +13.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +73.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +477.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 53 (range 48–58) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21015. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 90.8 | 91 | 40% | +36.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 73.5 | 74 | 35% | +25.7 |
| Market Momentum Score | 72.7 | 73 | 25% | +18.2 |
Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 30,013 | 89 | 40% | +35.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 137,281 | 94 | 40% | +37.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 11,012 | 87 | 20% | +17.5 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 33.3 | 73 | 35% | +25.7 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 17.3 | 45 | 25% | +11.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 30,013 | 89 | 20% | +17.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 137,281 | 94 | 20% | +18.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 13.0 | 71 | 50% | +35.6 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 33.3 | 73 | 30% | +22.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 73.3 | 75 | 20% | +15.1 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (107)
By cuisine
American 16 · Pizza 11 · Coffee 9 · Dessert 9 · Asian 8 · Sandwiches 8 · Burgers 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 7 · Bakery 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Mexican 5 · Chinese 4 · Italian 4 · Seafood 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Japanese 3 · Breakfast 2 · Indian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 63 · Quick service 17 · Dessert 15 · Bar 14 · Bakery 9 · Casual dining 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Food truck 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arby's Arby's | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 10 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Bamboo Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Japanese · Chinese | 225B Brierhill Dr | open |
| Barstool Bites | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Dessert · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Coffee shop | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee | 18 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Bel Air Billiards, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2A Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Bella Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2200 Conowingo Rd | open |
| Bento Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Bertucci's Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 12 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Bob Evans Bob Evans | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Breakfast | 14 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Broom's Bloom Dairy | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches | 1700 S Fountain Green Rd | open |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings | Bar · Casual dining | American | 5 Bel Air South Parkway, Suite P1649 | open |
| Bull On The Beach | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | American | 2306 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2110 Emmorton Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 2122 N Fountain Green Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 200 S Fountain Green Rd | open |
| Capriotti's Sandwich Shop Capriotti's Sandwich Shop | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 18 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Cavanagh's Olde Irish Pub | Bar | British / Irish pub food | 1959 Blair Ct | open |
| Cbo Foods Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Cheeburger Cheeburger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| China Haste | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 2464 E Churchville Rd | open |
| China Queen Buffet | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 225 Brierhill Dr | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 2699 Tobin Xing | open |
| Coffee Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee · Breakfast | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 1440 Handlir Dr. I-95 & SR 543 | open |
| Crust Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Pizza · Italian | 2108 Emmorton Rd | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 2206 Old Emmorton Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee | 2105 Calvary Rd | open |
| Dunkin' | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert | 2225 E Churchville Rd Ste C | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 2308 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Emmorton Snowballs & Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 101 E Wheel Rd | open |
| Eye 95 Bar & Grill | Bar | I-95, Belair, MD 21015, United States | open | |
| Flavor Cupcakery | Food truck | 1701 Fleetwood Dr | open | |
| Foodgod Truffle Fries | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Fuji Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 5 Bel Air S Pkwy b209 | open |
| Golden Palace Bistro Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1408 Handlir Dr | open | |
| Hickory Chance Beef | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 2010 White House Rd | open |
| Humagalas | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 16 Bel Air S Pkwy | open |
| Hummus Republic BelAir | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Huo Guo Hot Pot & BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Icy Delights - Churchville | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 2310 E Churchville Rd | open |
| India Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 5 Bel Air S Pkwy Ste 1615 | open |
| Italian Sensation | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 225 Brierhill Dr | open |
| JD's Smokehouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2235 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Jimmy John's Bel Air Jimmy John's El Salvador | Quick service | 225 Brierhill Dr | open | |
| Karen's Kakes & Cookies | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | open | |
| La Tolteca La Tolteca Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 2350 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Larray's Loaded Mac | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Latitude Seafood Co. Bel Air Latitude Seafood Co. Westchester Commons | Bar | Seafood · American | 5 Bel Air S Pkwy | open |
| Lee's Asian Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 1408 Handlir Dr | open |
| Lego's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Pizza · American | 2200 Conowingo Rd | open |
| Lochary Honkytonk | Bar | 2930 Lochary Rd | open | |
| Mad Monkey Brewing | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 123 Patterson Mill Rd | open | |
| Mariah's Cookies | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2111 Churchville Rd | open |
| McShane's Gourmet | Café | Coffee | 2217 E Churchville Rd Ste A | open |
| Mickey The Beer Studios | Bar | 710 Huntington Way | open | |
| Mr. Appliance of Bel Air | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 16A Bel Air S Pkwy | open |
| Mr. Beast Burger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Nascar Refuel | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Neo Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Nutrition By Design | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 2418 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Pairings Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · European | 2105 Laurel Bush Rd | open |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Fast casual | Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls | 5 Bel Air South Parkway | open |
| Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 18c bel air south pkwy | open |
| Pardon My Cheesesteak | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 12 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Philly Pretzel Factory Philly Pretzel Factory | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Bakery · American | 225 Brierhill Dr | open |
| Pit N Pitchers LLC | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 2206 Conowingo Rd | open |
| Pita Pit | Other | Sandwiches | 5 Bel Air S. Parkway Suite P1635 | open |
| Pizza Boli's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1909 Blair Ct | open |
| Plaza Mexico | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 1341 James Way | open |
| Quiznos | Other | Sandwiches | 4270 Philadelphia Rd | open |
| Richard's Fish & Crabs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 2211 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Rita's Italian Ice Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 223 Brierhill Dr | open |
| Rita’s of Bel Air MD Rita's Italian Ice | Dessert · Bar | Dessert | open | |
| Riverside Pub and Grille | Casual dining · Bar | 1402 Handlir Dr | open | |
| Route 24 Ale House | Casual dining · Bar | 2 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Ruby Tuesday | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1341 James Way | open | |
| Scotto's Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Seafood Festival Inc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Seasons Pizza Seasons Pizza Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Sharon's Hawaiian Shaved Ice | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1100 Cedar Ln | open | |
| Sharon's Hawaiian Shaved Ice | Dessert | 2201 E Churchville Rd | open | |
| Sierra's Shaved Ice Snowballs | Dessert | Dessert | 2213 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Sizzling Bombay | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 2108 Emmorton Rd | open |
| Smoothie King Smoothie King | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 5 Bel Air South Parkway Suite A115 | open |
| Smoothie King Smoothie King | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls | 225 Brierhill Drive Suite J | open |
| Sol Oaxaca Cocina Mexicana | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 16 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1921 Emmorton Road | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop | Coffee | 2698 Admiral Lane | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 225 Brierhill Dr | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2438 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 5 Bel Air Pky S Ste 1629 | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 2203 Jack Ln | open |
| Thai Spice | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| The Dirty Mermaid bar | Bar | 307 Bright Oaks Dr | open | |
| Three Brothers Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open | |
| Tiffanee & Co Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 2225 E Churchville Rd | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 2698 Admiral Ln | open |
| TT' S Tavern | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 2106 N Fountain Green Rd | open |
| Village Market & Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2105 Laurel Bush Rd | open |
| Vishnu Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy Ste 1615 | open | |
| Vixens Bakery | Bakery · Food truck | Bakery | 400 Plumtree Rd | open |
| Vocelli Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2108 Emmorton Rd | open |
| Wayback Burgers Wayback Burgers | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5 Bel Air South Pkwy | open |
| X-Golf Bel Air | Bar | 5 Bel Air S Pkwy | open | |
| You Say When Yogurt | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 225 Brierhill Dr Ste O | open |
| Hachi's Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 225 Brierhill Dr | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 9 | 9 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 15 | 15 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 16 | 16 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 20 | 20 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 24 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 24 | 23 | 12 | 9 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 23 | 22 | 12 | 9 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 31 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 29 | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 31 | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 26 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 31 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 33 | 33 | 12 | 15 | 6 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 35 | 35 | 13 | 16 | 6 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 37 | 37 | 15 | 17 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 38 | 38 | 15 | 17 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 38 | 37 | 12 | 19 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 44 | 42 | 15 | 21 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 44 | 41 | 15 | 22 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 41 | 39 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 42 | 41 | 17 | 19 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 45 | 43 | 18 | 20 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 49 | 47 | 21 | 22 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 47 | 45 | 18 | 20 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 48 | 46 | 18 | 20 | 8 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 49 | 47 | 19 | 19 | 9 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 45 | 43 | 18 | 19 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 46 | 44 | 19 | 18 | 7 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 50 | 47 | 19 | 21 | 7 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 55 | 52 | 20 | 25 | 7 | — | NAICS2022 |