BMIE Market 21120

Baltimore County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,440 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±890 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,599 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±231 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,967 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,540 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$162,052 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,083 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,271 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±300 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$580,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,810 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	42.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21120
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 1–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.23) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21120. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.23, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.4	78	40%	+31.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.9	58	35%	+20.3
Market Momentum Score	16.4	16	25%	+4.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,440	66	40%	+26.5
Median household income (ACS)	162,052	97	40%	+38.9
Households (ACS)	2,599	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	35%	+2.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.4	90	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	7,440	66	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	162,052	97	20%	+19.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	50%	+3.3
10-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Seafood 2 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bar 5 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baltimore Dragon Boat Club	Bar		1209 Brandy Springs Rd	open
Big Truck Farm Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		19919 Cameron Mill Rd	open
Bull House Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		17912 York Rd	open
Casa Mia's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Italian	17417 York Rd	open
Creamery Connection	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	110 Mount Carmel Rd	open
Hereford Zone Snoballs and Ice Cream	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	310 Mt Carmel Rd	open
Lee's Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		20429 York Rd	open
Pablo's Toc O's Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8 Lantern Cir	open
Park Inn	Bar		19308 York Rd	open
Royal Rabbit Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1090 Jordan Sawmill Rd	open
She's Got Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	21307 York Rd	open
StoneBridge Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	21336 York Rd	open
The Chill	Dessert	Dessert	18827 Frederick Rd	open
The Crab Stand	Food truck	Seafood	21338 York Rd	open
The Fill'Er-Up	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	21307 York Rd	open
Waltemeyer Snow Balls	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	21307 York Rd	open
Woodfire Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	17114 York Rd	open
Woodhall Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		17912 York Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	5	2	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	5	2	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	5	2	2	—	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	5	2	2	—	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	5	3	2	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	6	3	2	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	5	1	1	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	6	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	7	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	9	5	4	1	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	10	5	4	1	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	10	4	3	1	—	4	NAICS2002
2008	8	3	2	1	—	4	NAICS2007
2009	8	3	2	1	—	4	NAICS2007
2010	8	3	2	1	—	4	NAICS2007
2011	8	3	1	2	—	4	NAICS2007
2012	12	6	2	3	1	4	NAICS2012
2013	14	7	4	2	1	4	NAICS2012
2014	10	4	2	2	—	3	NAICS2012
2015	11	5	2	3	—	3	NAICS2012
2016	9	5	2	3	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	10	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	4	—	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	8	4	3	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	7	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	4	3	—	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21120. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21053	4.1 mi	2	2016
21105	4.9 mi	1	1995

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.