BMIE Market 21163

Baltimore County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,539 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±714 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,680 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±296 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,026 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,542 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$134,672 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,995 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,438 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±886 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$602,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,683 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21163
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21163. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.3	77	40%	+30.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.8	56	35%	+19.5
Market Momentum Score	26.0	26	25%	+6.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,539	67	40%	+26.6
Median household income (ACS)	134,672	94	40%	+37.6
Households (ACS)	2,680	65	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.6	70	25%	+17.5
Population (ACS)	7,539	67	20%	+13.3
Median household income (ACS)	134,672	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

American 2 · Asian 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 4 · Food truck 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2 Wheeled Taco Tuesday	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1415 Woodstock Rd	open
China Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	10805 Birmingham Way	open
Das Fassel	Bar		Dorchester Way	open
Granite Rose Tea Parlor	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	10813 Davis Ave	open
JZ's Brick Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Pizza	10533 Chesham Way	open
Los Compadres	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10805 Birmingham Way #24	open
Player's Bar & Grill	Bar		10795 Birmingham Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10795 Birmingham Way Unit #19	open
Tandoor Spice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	10805 Birmingham Way #22	open
The Snowball Stand	Food truck · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1970 Woodstock Rd	open
Woodstock Inn	Casual dining · Bar	American	1415 Woodstock Rd	open
Yamahana Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	10775 Birmingham Way	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	2	1	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	3	—	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	6	4	1	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	3	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	5	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21163. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21133	3.4 mi	42	2023
21104	3.5 mi	8	2023
21244	3.8 mi	61	2023
21042	4.9 mi	96	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.