BMIE Market 21219

Baltimore County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,565 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±988 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,632 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±316 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,379 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,816 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,438 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,724 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,264 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$384,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,820 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21219
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.21) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21219. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.21, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.7	77	40%	+30.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.4	64	35%	+22.5
Market Momentum Score	18.6	19	25%	+4.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,565	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	110,438	87	40%	+34.7
Households (ACS)	3,632	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.3	83	25%	+20.8
Population (ACS)	9,565	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	110,438	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-22.2	12	50%	+6.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-30	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

American 9 · Seafood 5 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 18 · Casual dining 11 · Quick service 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2118 Sail Inn	Casual dining · Bar	American · Seafood	2118 Lincoln Ave	open
Banda Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Mexican · Burgers	7201 Bethlehem Blvd	open
Bayshore Bar Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8214 N Point Rd # A	open
Captain Jimmy's Crab House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	7214 North Point Rd	open
Clancy's Pub	Bar		6916 North Point Rd	open
Crossroads Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	5200 North Point Blvd	open
Cruiser's Pit Beef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	2340 Ruth Ave	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7201 Bethlehem Blvd	open
Dock of the Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	9025 Cuckold Point Rd	open
Donovans Bar	Bar · Casual dining		6900 North Point Rd	open
Edgemere's Icy Delights	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	7526 North Point Rd	open
Full House Saloon	Bar		2311 Sparrows Point Rd	open
Ipizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5200 N Point Blvd	open
Islander Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	9008 Cuckold Point Rd	open
Maria's Carry Out	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	7111 North Point Rd	open
Meatman Pit Beef & Catering	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	7216 North Point Rd	open
Micky's Bar	Bar		5200 N Point Blvd	open
Mike's Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	6900 North Point Rd	open
New White Swan	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	8821 Millers Island Blvd Rd	open
Pizza Roma	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5220 North Point Blvd	open
Polock Johnny's Polock Johnny's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · German / Eastern European	7216 North Point Rd	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	7301-Bethlehem Blvd	open
Reeders Reef Tiki Bar	Bar		9199 Chesapeake Ave	open
RM crabs & seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	7111 Ella Avenue	open
Robbies Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2630 Sparrows Point Rd	open
Row Boat Willie's Dock Bar	Casual dining · Bar		9031 Cuckold Point Rd	open
Sparrows Point Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4414 North Point Blvd	open
Sparta Inn	Bar		6400 N Point Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	7201 Bethlehem Blvd	open
Steel Point Tavern and Liquors	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2516 Sparrows Point Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2304 Sparrows Point Rd	open
The Cove Bar & Restaurant	Bar		6400 North Point Rd	open
The Freezing Point Snowballs	Dessert	Dessert	2601 Sparrows Point Rd	open
The Muddy Beaver	Bar		5200 North Point Blvd	open
The One Nine	Bar		6900 North Point Rd	open
The Stachowski Pub	Bar · Casual dining		7719 S Cove Rd	open
Tiki Lee's Dock Bar	Casual dining · Bar		4309 Shore Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	7	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1995	16	7	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1996	18	7	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1997	17	9	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1998	19	11	4	5	1	8	NAICS1997
1999	18	9	3	3	1	9	NAICS1997
2000	18	9	3	3	1	9	NAICS1997
2001	17	9	3	3	1	8	NAICS1997
2002	19	10	6	4	—	9	NAICS1997
2003	18	10	5	5	—	8	NAICS2002
2004	16	8	4	4	—	8	NAICS2002
2005	16	8	4	4	—	8	NAICS2002
2006	19	12	7	5	—	7	NAICS2002
2007	15	8	5	3	—	6	NAICS2002
2008	16	9	5	3	1	6	NAICS2007
2009	19	11	5	4	1	7	NAICS2007
2010	17	10	6	3	1	7	NAICS2007
2011	14	8	4	3	1	6	NAICS2007
2012	14	8	5	2	1	6	NAICS2012
2013	14	7	4	2	1	7	NAICS2012
2014	19	10	6	4	—	8	NAICS2012
2015	17	9	6	3	—	7	NAICS2012
2016	18	10	6	4	—	8	NAICS2012
2017	16	10	7	3	—	6	NAICS2017
2018	15	9	6	3	—	6	NAICS2017
2019	16	10	7	3	—	6	NAICS2017
2020	14	7	4	3	—	7	NAICS2017
2021	15	8	5	3	—	7	NAICS2017
2022	13	7	4	3	—	6	NAICS2022
2023	14	7	4	3	—	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21219. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21052	1.7 mi	1	2007
21222	4.0 mi	77	2023
21221	4.3 mi	53	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.