BMIE Market 21226

Baltimore city, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,674 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,154 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,688 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±452 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,561 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,347 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,635 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,508 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,335 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±236 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$330,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,023 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21226
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21226. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.2	65	40%	+26.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.5	65	35%	+22.6
Market Momentum Score	75.6	76	25%	+18.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,674	65	40%	+26.0
Median household income (ACS)	82,635	65	40%	+26.1
Households (ACS)	2,688	65	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	35%	+26.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.5	48	25%	+11.9
Population (ACS)	6,674	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	82,635	65	20%	+13.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	37.5	87	50%	+43.4
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	30%	+22.8
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Seafood 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Bar 15 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Casual dining 8 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Afro Grill House	Casual dining · Bar			open
AJ's Pub	Bar		7320 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
American Coffee Co Inc	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies	7609 Energy Pkwy	open
Bear Bones Bar-B-Que	Bar	American · BBQ	4701 Pennington Ave	open
Bella Mia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8144 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
El Pilar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	8109 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
Frank's Bay Tavern	Bar		4507 Pennington Ave	open
Fred And Margie's	Casual dining · Bar		3605 Fairhaven Ave	open
Jim Dandy's	Casual dining · Bar		4810 Curtis Ave	open
Jimmy T's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	8031 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
Key Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	8148 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
King Chef's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	8111 Fort Smallwood Rd #203	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Seafood · Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	6301 Efficiency Way	open
Los Reyes Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican	2801 Hawkins Point Rd	open
Nu Rulz Bar & Lounge	Bar		1600 Hazel St	open
Paik's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	3563 Fairfield Rd	open
Pasadena Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	8111 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
Pit Stop Pub	Bar		8111 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
Pizza Crown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8111 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
Seatop Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4420 Pennington Ave	open
Shirley's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5006 Curtis Ave	open
Snow Delicious	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hawaiian / Pacific	8041 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
Sooners Tavern	Bar		1600 Hazel St	open
Stoney Creek Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	8238 Fort Smallwood Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8111 Fort Smallwood Road Suite 207	open
Summers	Casual dining · Bar		7910 Main St	open
Taste Restaurant & Lounge Baltimore	Bar · Quick service	American	4314 Curtis Ave	open
The Bay Bar	Bar		4800 Curtis Ave	open
The One Sports Bar & Lounge	Casual dining · Bar		4314 Curtis Ave	open
Thompson Pump	Restaurant (service type not stated)		711 Pittman Rd	open
Thumper's Bar	Bar		4600 Curtis Ave	open
Tony's Diner	Casual dining	American	3117 Vera St	open
UMBC Kosher Korner	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	1000 Hilltop Rd	open
Waterfront Cafe at USCG	Coffee shop · Café	American · Coffee	2401 Hawkins Point Rd	open
Los Reyes Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7300 Fort Smallwood Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	7	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1995	16	6	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1996	18	8	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1997	15	7	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1998	14	6	3	3	—	8	NAICS1997
1999	15	7	4	3	—	7	NAICS1997
2000	17	9	5	4	—	5	NAICS1997
2001	17	11	6	4	1	5	NAICS1997
2002	19	9	5	3	—	8	NAICS1997
2003	20	9	7	1	—	9	NAICS2002
2004	22	11	8	2	—	9	NAICS2002
2005	21	10	7	2	—	9	NAICS2002
2006	22	12	7	3	1	9	NAICS2002
2007	27	15	7	7	—	10	NAICS2002
2008	22	11	6	4	—	10	NAICS2007
2009	21	10	5	4	—	9	NAICS2007
2010	21	11	5	5	—	8	NAICS2007
2011	19	10	4	5	—	7	NAICS2007
2012	18	9	5	3	—	7	NAICS2012
2013	18	8	4	3	—	8	NAICS2012
2014	19	10	6	4	—	7	NAICS2012
2015	16	8	4	4	—	6	NAICS2012
2016	15	7	4	3	—	6	NAICS2012
2017	16	8	4	4	—	6	NAICS2017
2018	16	8	4	4	—	6	NAICS2017
2019	18	9	4	5	—	6	NAICS2017
2020	18	8	4	4	—	7	NAICS2017
2021	16	8	5	3	—	6	NAICS2017
2022	18	10	5	4	—	6	NAICS2022
2023	19	11	6	4	—	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21226. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21060	2.6 mi	30	2023
21225	3.1 mi	31	2023
21224	4.8 mi	172	2023
21061	5.0 mi	126	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.