BMIE Market 21713

Washington County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,846 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±583 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,899 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±287 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,502 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,769 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$96,199 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,908 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,176 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$369,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	39.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21713
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 5–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	79 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21713. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.7	74	40%	+29.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.3	71	35%	+24.9
Market Momentum Score	78.7	79	25%	+19.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,846	71	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	96,199	78	40%	+31.3
Households (ACS)	3,899	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.2	72	25%	+17.9
Population (ACS)	9,846	71	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	96,199	78	20%	+15.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	42.9	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 10 · BBQ 4 · Pizza 3 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 4 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asaro's Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18 N Main St	open
Back Home BBQ	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	7437 Sharpsburg Pike	open
Black Mountain Roasters Boonsboro	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	217 Potomac St	open
Black Rock Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	21036 National Pike	open
Boonsboro OTB	Casual dining · Bar		7700 Old National Pike	open
Branded Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	7704 Old National Pike Suite A	open
Captain Kids Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	7901 Sharpsburg Pike	open
Cow's Cones	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	21614 National Pike	open
Cracker Barrel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7749 Fairplay Rd	open
Dan's Restaurant & Tap House	Bar		3 N Main St	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	4 Tiger Way	open
Express.Connect	Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 Tiger Way	open
G Boone's Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7704 Old National Pike	open
Greenbrier Inn	Bar		21836 National Pike	open
Il Forno Vanish	Bar	Pizza · Italian	7704 Old National Pike	open
Jockey Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	7704 Old National Pike	open
Mountainside Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · BBQ	311 S Main St	open
My Mini Mart and Dream Diner	Casual dining	American	23 S Main St	open
Old South Mountain Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6132 Old National Pike	open
Pathfinder Farm Distillery Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		14 S Main St	open
Planck's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	7103 Sharpsburg Pike	open
Potomac Street Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9 Potomac St	open
Rasco NY Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	280 N Main St	open
Sizzling Fajita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	3 S Main St	open
Stone Werks Coffee + Sweets	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	7 N Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11 N Main St	open
The Lodge	Bar		21614 National Pike	open
The Yellow House	Bar	American	8005 Old National Pike	open
Pop's Place	Dessert	Dessert	21614 National Pike	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	5	4	1	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	8	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	10	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	9	3	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	13	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	3	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	9	7	3	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21713. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21746	3.7 mi	—
21756	4.7 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.