BMIE Market 21742

Washington County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	34,069 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,910 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,231 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±657 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	31,444 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,555 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,288 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,030 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,351 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±61 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$304,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,100 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	43 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21742
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+4.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+26.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+65.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+72.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	50 (range 45–55) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21742. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.5	83	40%	+33.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.6	72	35%	+25.1
Market Momentum Score	65.7	66	25%	+16.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	34,069	91	40%	+36.5
Median household income (ACS)	86,288	70	40%	+27.8
Households (ACS)	13,231	91	20%	+18.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	26.5	69	35%	+24.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.6	62	25%	+15.5
Population (ACS)	34,069	91	20%	+18.2
Median household income (ACS)	86,288	70	20%	+13.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	4.9	61	50%	+30.6
10-year restaurant growth	26.5	69	30%	+20.6
20-year restaurant growth	65.4	73	20%	+14.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (113)

By cuisine

American 21 · Coffee 12 · Pizza 10 · Bakery 9 · Sandwiches 9 · Dessert 8 · Italian 7 · Mexican 6 · BBQ 5 · Asian 4 · Breakfast 4 · Burgers 4 · Chinese 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Japanese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Mediterranean 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Sushi 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Peruvian 2 · Seafood 2 · Vegetarian 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · French 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Greek 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Indian 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 55 · Bar 16 · Quick service 14 · Casual dining 11 · Bakery 10 · Coffee shop 10 · Dessert 10 · Other 8 · Café 6 · Food truck 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
19th Hole at Black Rock	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		20025 Mt Aetna Rd	open
Aleko's 2 Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	511 Northern Ave	open
Antiox Juicebar and Wellness Center	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
Aqua 103	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	12916 Conamar Dr	open
Bella's Bites	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14113 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Bella's Bites Eatery	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
Benjamin Art Gallery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1303 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Bistro 11	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · European	13208 Fountain Head Plaza	open
Black Eyed Susan Restaurant & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	18727 North Pointe Dr	open
Blackrock Catering & Sauce Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
Bonnie Butter Bakes	Other · Bakery	Bakery	14113 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Break Away II Sports Lounge	Bar · Casual dining		13726 Pennsylvania Ave	open
BubbleBee Boba Bar	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	18339 Air Park Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	18234 Maugans Ave	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13014 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Cafe Italia Restaurant and Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	935 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Café Roma Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	14224 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Cannon Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	11359 Robinwood Dr	open
Carol And Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1529 Potomac Ave	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1533 Potomac Ave	open
Ciao Pasta	Quick service		205 Park Ln	open
Ciao Pasta USA	Quick service		18348 Airpark Rd	open
Cicchelli's Hoagies & Italian Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	12813 Shank Farm Way F	open
Cluck’n Around BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	Down here in	open
Colonial Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	14130 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Creekside Inn	Bar		1225 Security Rd	open
Cupcakes by Charlotte and Samuel	Bakery	Bakery	anywhere	open
Dracula’s Kitchen and Bar - Hagerstown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	20131 Professional Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert · Coffee	13108 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	19435 Emerald Square, Suite 100	open
Dutch Twist Pretzels	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	1583 Potomac Ave	open
Early Bird Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	1583 Potomac Ave	open
Fajita Grande Fajita Grande Hagerstown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	12818 Shank Farm Way	open
Flat Hause Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1429 Hamilton Blvd	open
Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	18728 North Pointe Dr	open
Freddie's Subs	Other	Sandwiches	520 Park Ln	open
Free Range Cafe	Café · Fast casual	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	520 Northern Ave	open
Friendly's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	12814 Shank Farm Way Ste A	open
Fuji Asian Food & Sushi Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Chinese · Sushi	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
Gelato Bliss	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches · Coffee	13216 Fountain Head Plz	open
General Warfield's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	20140 Scholar Dr Suite 210	open
Hagerstown Dutch Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1583 Potomac Ave	open
Hagerstown Weis Markets Sushi	Food truck	Japanese · Sushi	12817 Shank Farm Way	open
Harambee54	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		20140 Scholar Dr	open
Hempen Hill BBQ Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	BBQ	13208 Fountain Head Plz	open
Hummus Mediterranean Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · Halal / kosher	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
Imperial Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	13112 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Just Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	18728 North Village	open
Kings New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13208 Fountain Head Plaza	open
KookieNow by Angel	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	20217 Mallard Dr	open
Leitersburg Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		21400 Leiter St	open
Longmeadow Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	12814 Shank Farm Ln	open
Los Primos Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Peruvian · Latin American (other)	18727 N Pointe Dr	open
Maloo's Pub & Grill	Bar		11353 Robinwood Dr	open
Mandy's soft pretzels	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	1583 Potomac Ave	open
Mango Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
Mary's Tex-Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	13216 Fountain Head Plaza	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	18411 Maugans Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	170 Northern Avenue	open
MeeThai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	11353 Robinwood Dr	open
Midar Cigars	Bar		917 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Mimi's Pupuseria Y Taqueria	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Peruvian · Mexican · Latin American (other)	18501 Maugans Ave #102	open
Nick's Airport Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	14548 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Northside Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1561 Potomac Ave	open
Olde Cottage Bakes	Bakery	Bakery	19134 Olde Waterford Rd	open
Olde Time Candy & Bulk Foods LLC	Dessert		1583 Potomac Ave	open
Olive and Oak Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	19435 Emerald Square	open
Oliver's Pub and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1565 Potomac Ave	open
Olympia Candy Kitchen	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	13154 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	18726 North Village	open
Philly Sandwich Co	Other	Sandwiches	11347 Robinwood Dr	open
Pigin Out	Food truck		14113 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13527 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Poke and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Sushi · Japanese · Healthy / salads / bowls	11347 Robinwood Dr	open
Pura Vida Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	14035 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	18728 North Village	open
Rita's Italian Ice and Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1313 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Rita’s of Hagerstown MD Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Rocky's New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11351 Robinwood Dr	open
Rooster Moon Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	1551 Potomac Ave	open
Rucola Real Food	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Breakfast	19330 Leitersburg Pike, # 1	open
Safron Bakery Cafe	Bakery	Bakery · Italian · French	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
Sanders Cookie Jar Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13140 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Schula's Grill and Crab House	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
Scmw Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12818 Shank Farm Way Ste A	open
Shawarma House Mediterranean Grill & BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · BBQ	19346 Leitersburg Pike	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	18726 N Pointe Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	12810 Shank Farm Way	open
Stone House Urban Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		12810 Shank Farm Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	14188 Perini Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	18501 Maugans Ave. Suite 103	open
Suite 710	Bar		19330 Leitersburg Pike	open
Sweet Love Cookies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	19211 Sharon Dr	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	13609 Crayton Blvd	open
The 301 Tacos & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Pizza	1561 Potomac Ave	open
The Cafeteria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11205 John F Kennedy Dr	open
The Drink District	Food truck		13502 Pennsylvania Ave	open
The Farmer's Cook House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1583 Potomac Ave	open
The Greene Turtle Sports Bar & Grille The Greene Turtle	Bar · Casual dining	American	12818-A Shank Farm Way	open
The Grille at Runways	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	18421 Henson Blvd	open
The Runway Cafe	Café	Coffee	18434 Showalter Rd	open
Tony’s Pizza Hagerstown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	14224 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Top China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	18728 N Pointe Dr	open
Toppings Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11142 Robinwood Dr	open
Upper Stem Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		20150 Leitersburg Pike	open
Verna's Sub Shop	Other	Sandwiches	1583 Potomac Ave	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	13612 Crayton Blvd	open
Waffle House Waffle House Amman	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Breakfast	13120 Pennsylvania Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	18289 Showalter Rd	open
Wintan Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11205 John F Kennedy Dr Ste 205	open
Airport Inc Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14548 Pennsylvania Ave	closed
Blackrock Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	11205 John F Kennedy Dr	closed
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	12813 Shank Farm Way Ste F	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	25	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	30	27	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	23	19	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	21	17	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	26	22	10	10	2	4	NAICS1997
1999	28	24	10	11	3	4	NAICS1997
2000	31	27	14	10	3	4	NAICS1997
2001	32	27	12	12	3	4	NAICS1997
2002	31	26	12	12	2	4	NAICS1997
2003	32	26	13	12	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	32	24	13	9	1	5	NAICS2002
2005	30	22	12	9	1	4	NAICS2002
2006	33	25	12	11	2	4	NAICS2002
2007	33	27	15	8	3	3	NAICS2002
2008	40	32	17	10	5	4	NAICS2007
2009	44	34	19	10	5	4	NAICS2007
2010	41	33	16	11	6	3	NAICS2007
2011	41	35	17	13	5	2	NAICS2007
2012	44	36	18	17	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	42	34	16	17	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	47	39	18	19	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	48	40	18	19	3	4	NAICS2012
2016	50	41	20	18	3	3	NAICS2012
2017	53	46	21	20	5	3	NAICS2017
2018	48	41	17	19	5	3	NAICS2017
2019	51	42	17	20	5	3	NAICS2017
2020	52	45	20	21	4	3	NAICS2017
2021	54	46	19	22	5	3	NAICS2017
2022	52	44	19	21	3	3	NAICS2022
2023	49	43	20	19	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21742. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17263	4.7 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.