BMIE Market 21754

Frederick County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,156 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±832 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,660 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±290 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,323 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,198 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$182,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,911 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,745 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±910 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$647,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,625 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21754
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 5–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.47) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21754. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.47, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.5	80	40%	+31.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86.2	86	35%	+30.2
Market Momentum Score	92.1	92	25%	+23.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,156	68	40%	+27.1
Median household income (ACS)	182,188	98	40%	+39.4
Households (ACS)	2,660	65	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.4	83	25%	+20.7
Population (ACS)	8,156	68	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	182,188	98	20%	+19.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · American 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · French 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Quick service 8 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Black Hog Bbq & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3323 Worthington Blvd	open
Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	3335 Worthington Blvd	open
China Taste Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3309 Worthington Blvd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		10152 Old National Pike	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused	Pizza	10162 Old National PIke	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		10263 Old National Pike	open
Gabriel's Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	4730 Ijamsville Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	10162 Old National Pike Suite 100	open
Jimmy John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3321 Worthington Blvd	open
Ledo Pizza Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10162 Old National Pike suite 200	open
Ledo Pizza Urbana, MD Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3303 Worthington Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10160 Stickleback Street	open
Moby Dick House of Kabob Moby Dick House of Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	3321 Worthington Blvd	open
Philly Pretzel Factory	Bakery	Bakery	3357 Urbana Pike	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3284 Bennett Creek Avenue	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10122 Old National Pike	open
The Hook, Pool & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		11504 Warbler Ln	open
The Urbana Lodge	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3335 Worthington Blvd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Quick service		10162 Old National Pike	open
Zen Daddy T Productions	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	3535 Green Valley Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2011	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21754. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21770	3.4 mi	5	2023
21704	3.6 mi	82	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.