BMIE Market 21769

Frederick County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,965 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±878 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,146 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,236 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,149 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$151,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,617 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,708 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$507,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,228 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	40.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21769
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+87.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 16–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.90) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	91 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21769. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.90, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.2	82	40%	+32.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.9	83	35%	+29.0
Market Momentum Score	90.9	91	25%	+22.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,965	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	151,563	96	40%	+38.5
Households (ACS)	4,146	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	150	95	35%	+33.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.5	62	25%	+15.6
Population (ACS)	11,965	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	151,563	96	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	150	95	30%	+28.6
20-year restaurant growth	87.5	79	20%	+15.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 5 · Dessert 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Seafood 3 · Bakery 2 · Greek 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 10 · Dessert 7 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Quick service 2 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abbraccio Gelato	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	203 E Main St	open
Aleko's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	6 N Church St	open
Aleko's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	4304 Old National Pike	open
Asian Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7 N Church St	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	200 Middletown Pkwy	open
Beans & Dreams - Nektario's Place	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	203 E Main St Ste C	open
Black Hog BBQ & Bar Black Hog BBQ & Bar	Bar	BBQ · American	100 Middletown Pkwy	open
Boordy Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		121 E Main St	open
Captain Benders Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	113 E Main St	open
Cinco de Mayo Cinco de Mayo Restaurants	Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	200 Middletown Pkwy	open
Crybaby Café & Toy Library	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	7 W Main St	open
Deb's Artisan Bakehouse	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	402 W Green St	open
Dempseys Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	116 W Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	4316 Old National Pike	open
Fordham Lee Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		6776 Burkittsville Rd	open
Fratelli's Italian Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	Middletown Parkway	open
J.B. Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	8737 Mount Tabor Rd	open
James Gang Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		809 E Main St	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Casual dining	Sandwiches · American	100 Middletown Pkwy	open
Jumbo's Ice House	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	6521 Holter Rd	open
La Carreta Tacos y Tortas La Carreta	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Casual dining	Sandwiches · Mexican · American	211 E Main St	open
Mazzaroth Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		8333 Myersville Rd	open
Middle Grounds Middletown	Coffee shop	Coffee	1 W Main St	open
Middletown Valley Historical	Bar		305 E Main St	open
More Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	13 W Main St	open
Orchid Cellar Meadery and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		8546 Pete Wiles Rd	open
South Mountain Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1217 Marker Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	815 E Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5 E Main St	open
Tapia's on Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	203 E Main St	open
The Main Cup	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Café · Bar	Coffee	14 W Main St	open
Trinity Cakeorations	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Maryland Ct	open
Valley Grill Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining	American	50 Glenbrook Dr	open
Verona Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Pizza · Coffee · Italian	809 E Main St	open
White Rocks - Appalachian Trail, Md.	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Willow Oaks Craft Cider and Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6219 Harley Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	1	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	6	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	7	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	7	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	7	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21769. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21714	3.8 mi	1	2016
21718	4.6 mi	1	2001
21779	4.7 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.