BMIE Market 21771

Frederick County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	33,031 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,079 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,226 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±515 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,563 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,200 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$157,302 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,190 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,252 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$556,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,187 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	89.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	42 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21771
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-2.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+82.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	41 (range 37–44) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21771. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	92.5	93	40%	+37.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.6	61	35%	+21.2
Market Momentum Score	52.0	52	25%	+13.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	33,031	91	40%	+36.3
Median household income (ACS)	157,302	97	40%	+38.7
Households (ACS)	11,226	88	20%	+17.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-2.3	22	35%	+7.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.7	61	25%	+15.4
Population (ACS)	33,031	91	20%	+18.1
Median household income (ACS)	157,302	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.7	65	50%	+32.4
10-year restaurant growth	-2.3	22	30%	+6.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (94)

By cuisine

American 20 · Bakery 8 · Dessert 8 · Pizza 7 · Coffee 6 · Italian 6 · Japanese 6 · Mexican 6 · Asian 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · BBQ 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Sushi 4 · Burgers 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Seafood 2 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 46 · Bar 20 · Quick service 13 · Dessert 10 · Bakery 9 · Casual dining 8 · Winery / distillery / taproom 6 · Café 5 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Food truck 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	210 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	337 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Berrywine Plantations	Winery / distillery / taproom		13601 Glissans Mill Rd	open
Black Ankle Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		14463 Black Ankle Rd	open
Blimpie	Other	Sandwiches	502 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Bolder food/drink	Bar	American	17004 Frederick Rd	open
Brick Ridge Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6212 Ridge Rd	open
Buffalo Wings & Beer	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · Asian · American	237 S Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	501 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
California Tortilla California Tortilla Qatar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1311 S Main St	open
CarterQue BBQ and Grilling Co.	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	1310 S Main St	open
Casita Romos Mexican Restaurant & Margarita Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1604 RIDGESIDE Dr	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1705 Ridgeside Dr	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	439 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Chong Yet Yin Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	429 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
City Spirit Liquor	Bar		208 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Cle Doree	Dessert	Dessert	239 S Main St	open
Cole's Chesapeake Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	684 Ridge Rd	open
Concetta's Main Street Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	231 S Main St	open
Cryin' Johnnies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	235 S Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	431 Ridgeside Dr	open
Dragon Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		502 Acorn Ct	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	1401 S Main St	open
Elk Run Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		15113 Liberty Rd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	505 E. Ridgeville Blvd.	open
Football Sundays at Fatty D's Pub.	Bar		Horizon Rd	open
Frey's Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		8601 Mapleville Rd	open
FRIO BITES	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	1311 S Main St	open
GG's Pastry Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	239 S Main St	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1001 Twin Arch Rd	open
J & S Endeavors Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17530 Frederick Rd Apt A	open
Jayde's Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	306 Spring Gate Ct	open
Jbs Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		413 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	413 E. Ridgeville Boulevard	open
Jessica's Snowballs-Mount Airy	Dessert	Dessert	3 N Main St	open
Jgut.llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		231 S Main St	open
Jimmie Cone	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1312 S Main St	open
Katana Sushi Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1311 S Main St #102	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1613 Ridgeside Dr	open
Knife And Kitchen	Food truck		8253 Dollyhyde Rd	open
Ledo Pizza Mt. Airy, MD Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	520 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Linganore Winecellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		13601 Glissans Mill Rd	open
Liquidity Aleworks	Brewery / taproom · Bar		8 N Main St	open
Liquor beer and wine LU&JOES	Bar		1024 Ridge Rd	open
Loew Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		14001 Liberty Rd	open
Los Aztecas II Los Aztecas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1604 Ridgeside Dr	open
Lu & Joe's Restaurant and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai · American	1024 Ridge Rd	open
Mamma Angela	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	5 Ridgeside Ct	open
McAlister's Deli McAlister's Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	301 East Ridgeville Boulevard	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1706 Ridgeside Dr	open
Memories Charcoal House	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	403 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Milkhouse Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		8253 Dollyhyde Rd	open
Mjj Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1001 Twin Arch Rd	open
Mommy Magic Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1517 Ridgeside Dr	open
Mondays in Mount Airy	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3 N Main St	open
Mount Airy Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1401 S Main St	open
Mt Asian	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1001 Twin Arch Rd	open
Mt. Airy Pancakes, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1001 Twin Arch Rd	open
Murphy ' S Pub Murphy's Pub	Bar · Quick service			open
Napoli, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		409 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
New York J & P Pizza New York J&P Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	409 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Off Center	Bar		304 Center St	open
Olde Town Restaurant	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast · American	206 S Main St	open
Panevino	Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 Ridgeside Ct	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1502 S Main St	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1001 Twin Arch Rd Ste 1	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1705 Ridgeside Dr	open
Quickfire Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	437 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
R.A.Benz Coffee	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1401 Crossbow Rd	open
Red Shedman Farm Brewery and Hop Yard	Brewery / taproom		13601 Glissans Mill Rd	open
Rita's Italian Ice Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert · Bar	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1603 Ridgeside Dr	open
SALTWATER Kitchen & Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	6212 Ridge Rd	open
Second Breakfast Sourdough	Bakery	Bakery	12648 Molesworth Dr	open
Siempre De Fiesta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1001 Twin Arch Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	337 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Bakery	208 East Ridgeville Blvd	open
Super Suppers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2904 Back Acre Cir Ste 101	open
Superfoods Cafe and Market	Café	Coffee · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	106 S Main St	open
Surah Steak Seafood Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Sushi · Seafood · Japanese	101 Ridgeside Ct	open
Taqueria el Jalapeno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11 W Ridgeville Blvd	open
Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp	Quick service		1001 Twin Arch Rd Ste 1	open
The Dessert Depot	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1502 S Main St Ste105	open
The Greene Turtle Sports Bar and Grille	Bar		1604 Ridgeside Dr	open
The Grille at Challedon	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6166 Challedon Cir	open
The Paella & Tapas Place	Food truck	Spanish / tapas	13611 Penn Shop Rd	open
TOM LEE	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	101 Ridgeside Ct	open
Tony Pazzo Italian Ristorante and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	114 S Main St	open
Tremper's Tiki Bar	Bar · Casual dining		16997 Moss Meadow Way	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	307 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Tutti Frutti	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	411 E Ridgeville Blvd	open
Twin Arch Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	1001 Twin Arch Rd	open
Vocelli Pizza Vocelli Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1001 Twin Arch Rd Unit 14-a	open
Walker’s on Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8 N Main St	open
Miscellaneous Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		114 S Main St # B103	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	23	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	23	21	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	20	18	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	23	22	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	24	23	15	6	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	22	21	12	7	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	23	22	9	9	4	1	NAICS1997
2001	26	25	11	10	4	1	NAICS1997
2002	34	28	15	11	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	30	28	13	14	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	31	30	15	14	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	34	33	13	16	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	32	31	15	14	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	32	29	14	12	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	33	30	16	11	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	39	37	19	13	5	—	NAICS2007
2010	41	40	19	16	5	—	NAICS2007
2011	36	35	14	16	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	41	40	19	18	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	44	43	20	20	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	44	42	20	19	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	42	40	17	20	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	42	40	18	19	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	42	39	19	17	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	42	39	20	16	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	44	39	20	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	44	39	19	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	49	44	22	20	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	46	41	19	20	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	47	42	20	20	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21771. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.