BMIE Market 21774

Frederick County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,134 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,090 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,647 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±316 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,662 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,073 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$171,103 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,721 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,494 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$541,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,462 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21774
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+400.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.46) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21774. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.46, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.8	86	40%	+34.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81	81	35%	+28.4
Market Momentum Score	70.6	71	25%	+17.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,134	79	40%	+31.5
Median household income (ACS)	171,103	98	40%	+39.1
Households (ACS)	5,647	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	36.4	75	35%	+26.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.8	77	25%	+19.3
Population (ACS)	17,134	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	171,103	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.4	73	50%	+36.7
10-year restaurant growth	36.4	75	30%	+22.6
20-year restaurant growth	36.4	56	20%	+11.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Other 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5 West Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	5 W Main St	open
Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese · Chinese	11670 Old National Pike	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	11680 Old National Pike	open
Can Do With Lyme	Coffee shop	Coffee	6593 Nyasa Bnd Ste B	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Quick service · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	11715 Old National Pike	open
Fireside Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6718 Coldstream Dr	open
Klsky, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10519 Old National Pike	open
Lighthouse Seafood	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Seafood	12051 Old National Pike	open
M And E Pizza Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11717 Old National Pike Ste 18	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11700 Morning Gate Ln	open
Mealey's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8 W Main St	open
Mom's Pizza & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	26 W Main St	open
Nana B. Sweets	Casual dining · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bar	Bakery · American · Dessert	11717 Old National Pike	open
New Market Plains Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		11111 W Baldwin	open
Pasquale's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	Pizza · Italian · Sandwiches · American	11670 Old National Pike	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5411 Rotary Ave	open
Pour Decisions Restaurant, Bar & Music	Bar		10519 Old National Pike	open
Prospect Pantry	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	1 W Main St	open
South Street Subs	Other	Sandwiches	11717 Old National Pike	open
Stage Line Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5 W Main St	open
Sunset & Main	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		68 W Main St	open
Team Maryland Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11717 Old National Pike Ste 18	open
The Derby Restaurant & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	83 Old National Pike	open
The Duncan Tavern	Bar	Pizza	Fox Chase Rd	open
Vintage Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	8 W Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	13	6	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	10	2	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	3	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	15	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21774. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21701	3.9 mi	142	2023
21770	4.3 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.