BMIE Market 21783

Washington County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,910 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±950 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,632 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±324 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,130 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,522 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$100,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,754 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,070 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±120 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$339,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,728 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	47.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21783
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+250.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 6–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21783. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.7	75	40%	+29.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.5	72	35%	+25.4
Market Momentum Score	60.9	61	25%	+15.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,910	71	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	100,750	81	40%	+32.6
Households (ACS)	3,632	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.1	84	25%	+21.0
Population (ACS)	9,910	71	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	100,750	81	20%	+16.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Carmine's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	22409 Jefferson Blvd	open
China 88	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	22405 Jefferson Blvd	open
Debbie's Soft Serve	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	22309 Old Georgetown Rd	open
Dixie Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4 N Main St	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	22409 Jefferson Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	22413 Jefferson Blvd	open
Fryzaholic	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4 Douglas Ct W	open
Hadley Farms Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	47 S Main St	open
Jacks New Mancave	Bar · Quick service	Burgers	1 Grove Creek Cir	open
Misty Meadow Farm Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	14325 Misty Meadow Rd	open
Racks N Backs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	0000 Smithsburg Pike	open
Red Heifer Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		12840 Red Heifer Winery Ln	open
Rocky's New York Pizza And Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	22032 Jefferson Blvd	open
Rollin' Smoke Meats N Sweets	Food truck	BBQ · American	23715 Leathers Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	22507 Jefferson Blvd	open
The Corner Loaf Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	12312 Little Antietam Rd	open
Trackside Kitchen	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	48 S Main St	open
Vince's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9 S Main St	open
Wolfe's Den	Casual dining · Bar		6 W Water St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	6	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	6	5	1	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	1	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	1	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	2	2	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	2	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	6	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	6	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	6	2	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	7	6	2	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	2	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	2	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	8	7	3	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21783. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21780	4.5 mi	—
21719	4.6 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.