BMIE Market 21788

Frederick County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,654 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±906 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,649 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±340 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,622 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,718 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,856 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,529 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$959 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$379,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,926 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	65.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21788
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+23.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 13–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21788. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.9	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.5	50	35%	+17.7
Market Momentum Score	17.2	17	25%	+4.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,654	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	98,856	80	40%	+32.1
Households (ACS)	4,649	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15.8	16	35%	+5.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.7	57	25%	+14.4
Population (ACS)	11,654	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	98,856	80	20%	+16.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	50%	+8.9
10-year restaurant growth	-15.8	16	30%	+4.7
20-year restaurant growth	-5.9	18	20%	+3.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 9 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Pizza 3 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 6 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
10Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	10 E Main St	open
Bollinger's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	210 N Church St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	427 N Church St	open
Catoctin Breeze Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		15010 Roddy Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert · Coffee	130 Frederick Rd	open
Fratelli's NY Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	140 Frederick Rd	open
Freeze's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		8000 Links Bridge Road	open
Gateway Candyland	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	14802 N Franklinville Rd	open
Hoffman's Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	405 E Main St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1 Thurmont Blvd	open
Kona Ice of Fredrick Co MD	Food truck		426 N Church St	open
Links Bridge Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		8830 Old links Bridge Rd	open
Los Amigos Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	205 Frederick Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	200 Frederick Road	open
Mountain Gate Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	133 Frederick Rd	open
New Win Hing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	211 Tippin Dr	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	205 Frederick Rd	open
Rocky's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	205 Tippin Dr	open
Roy Rogers Roy Rogers	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	203 Frederick Rd	open
Simply Asia Simply Asia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	120 Frederick Rd Ste B & C	open
SnowFox Grab N Go Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2 Thurmont Blvd	open
Springfield Manor Winery Distillery Brewery	Winery / distillery / taproom		11836A Auburn Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	224 North Church St Suite K	open
The Furnace Grill and Crab House	Casual dining · Bar	American	12841 Catoctin Furnace Rd	open
Thurmont Kountry Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	17 Water St	open
Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	303 Tippin Dr	open
J & J's Bbq & Seafood Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	19 Water St	closed
Silver Bakery Llc	Bakery	Bakery	120 Frederick Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	13	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	16	12	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	19	15	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	19	16	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	21	16	8	8	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	21	16	8	8	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	19	14	8	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	21	16	9	7	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	20	16	10	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	18	17	10	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	18	17	9	8	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	19	18	9	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	21	20	9	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	17	9	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	17	8	9	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	19	18	8	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	21	19	9	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	21	19	9	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	21	18	8	10	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	22	19	7	12	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	20	18	7	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	21	19	7	11	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	21	19	8	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	21	19	7	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	18	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21788. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21778	4.9 mi	1	2013

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.