BMIE Market 21793

Frederick County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,719 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±804 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±297 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,775 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,591 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,971 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,537 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±181 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$459,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,771 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21793
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+22.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 8–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21793. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.3	79	40%	+31.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83.5	84	35%	+29.2
Market Momentum Score	85.8	86	25%	+21.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,719	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	121,971	91	40%	+36.4
Households (ACS)	3,890	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.3	71	25%	+17.8
Population (ACS)	10,719	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	121,971	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	37.5	87	50%	+43.4
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	57.1	70	20%	+13.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Pizza 4 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 3 · Quick service 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asian No 1	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	32 E Frederick St	open
Asian Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	8415 Woodsboro Pike Ste J	open
Azteca Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	32 E Frederick St	open
Brick Block Cakes LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Adams Way	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	140 Walkers Village Way	open
Dante's Situation Room Bar & Grill	Bar		46 Partyhard Court	open
El Rancho Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	111 Walkers Village Way	open
Glamourview Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9847 Woodsboro Pike	open
Heavenly Cheesecakes & More	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert		open
Indian Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8415 Woodsboro Pike Ste J	open
Italia New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	30 E Frederick St	open
Jay Kishan Inc Dba Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)		134 Walkers Village Way	open
Kings NY Style Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8415-G Woodsboro Pike	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	100 Sandstone Dr	open
Martins Caterers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		79 W Frederick St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	20 E Frederick St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	24 E. Frederick Frederick	open
Pleasant Hill Produce	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10009 Kelly Rd	open
Renzi's Pizza	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2A W Frederick St	open
Rosie Cheeks Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		10229 Woodsboro Pike	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	134 Walkers Village Way	open
Taqueria Los Primos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	100 Sandstone Dr	open
The Pham	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8824 Adventure Ave	open
Village Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	122 Walkers Village Way	open
Whistle Stop Coffee	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	34 W Pennsylvania Ave	open
Rotisserie Chicken & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		32 E Frederick St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	3	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	12	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	12	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21793. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21701	3.2 mi	142	2023
21798	4.3 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.