BMIE Market 21797

Howard County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,643 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±688 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,849 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,839 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,079 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$189,241 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,817 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,535 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±808 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$735,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59,507 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21797
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21797. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.1	80	40%	+32.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.8	71	35%	+24.8
Market Momentum Score	48.0	48	25%	+12.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,643	69	40%	+27.4
Median household income (ACS)	189,241	99	40%	+39.4
Households (ACS)	2,849	66	20%	+13.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.4	71	25%	+17.7
Population (ACS)	8,643	69	20%	+13.7
Median household income (ACS)	189,241	99	20%	+19.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Seafood 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
China Yee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	710 Lisbon Center Dr Ste G	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		15850 Old Frederick Road	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	703 Lisbon Center Dr Ste F	open
Harvest Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	710 Lisbon Center Dr	open
Heron's Meadow Farm	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	1596 Daisy Rd	open
J & T Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	408 Woodbine Rd	open
Magic Hut Snowballs	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	603 Wedekind Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	702 Lisbon Center Dr	open
Morgan Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		15400 Frederick Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	703 Lisbon Center Drive Suite A	open
Tea Vue	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	620 Talley Ho Dr	open
The Grill at Lisbon	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	15943 Frederick Rd	open
The Ice Shack	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	603 Wedekind Dr	open
Tony Locos Bar & Restaurant	Casual dining · Bar	Caribbean · American	710 Lisbon Center Dr	open
Tony's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7627 Woodbine Rd	open
Washington DC	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3175 Lorenzo Ln	open
Woodbine Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	401 Woodbine Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	2	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	1	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	—	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	1	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	1	7	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	2	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	1	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	6	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	2	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21797. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21723	3.5 mi	1	2016
21738	4.2 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.