BMIE Market 21911

Cecil County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,551 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±960 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,953 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±361 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,004 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,081 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,673 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,724 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,218 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±178 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$359,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,710 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	37.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21911
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+114.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.14) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21911. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.14, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.3	76	40%	+30.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.2	57	35%	+20.0
Market Momentum Score	55.7	56	25%	+13.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,551	72	40%	+28.6
Median household income (ACS)	104,673	84	40%	+33.5
Households (ACS)	3,953	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.2	56	25%	+13.9
Population (ACS)	10,551	72	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	104,673	84	20%	+16.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.4	73	50%	+36.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	15.4	43	20%	+8.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Italian 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bigfoot's Steaks & Hoagies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	20 W Main St	open
Blowin smoke bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	598 Rising Sun Rd	open
Bodegas González Ruggiero	Winery / distillery / taproom		527 Calvert Rd	open
Bottom of the Hill Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		325 W Main St	open
Buck's Restaurant and Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		314 E Main St	open
Chrome Dairy & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		221 W Main St	open
Chrome Liquors	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	221 W Main St	open
Crabs Outback	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	305 W Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	240 Colonial Way	open
Dove Valley Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		645 Harrington Rd	open
Four Seas Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	223 E Main St A	open
Garden Girl	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	2 E Main St	open
Greenhurst Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1411 Joseph Biggs Memorial Hwy	open
Kilby Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	129 Strohmaier Ln	open
Lee's Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	36 Rising Sun Town Center	open
Living Springs Christian	Restaurant (service type not stated)		145 Horseshoe Rd	open
Lori’s Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	10 E Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10 Rising Sun Town Ctr	open
Milk & Honey Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery		open
Our Place At The Bottom Of The Hill	Casual dining · Bar		325 W Main St	open
Pizza Boy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	38 Rising Sun Town Center	open
Pizza Tower II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	224 E Main St	open
Quiroz Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Ryan Dr	open
Rise 'N Grind Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	8 E Main St	open
Riviera Maya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	100 Ryan Dr	open
Rock Springs Store & Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1320 Rock Springs Rd	open
Soda Jerk Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs · Dessert	26B Rising Sun Town Center	open
Spready Oak Country Cafe	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1643 Conowingo Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	24 Rising Sun Town Center	open
Sunrise Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Café	Coffee · American	9 E Main St	open
The Golden Mule	Casual dining · Bar		1809 Conowingo Rd	open
The “AHA” Alcohol Holding Area	Bar		2114 Theodore Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	20	18	6	10	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	16	7	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	17	7	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	17	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	17	5	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	15	4	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	13	3	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	16	14	4	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	4	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21911. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21917	3.8 mi	1	2006
19362	4.4 mi	3	2021

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.