BMIE Market 22134

Stafford County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,310 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±462 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,469 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±169 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,862 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,379 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$70,268 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,750 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	23.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,311 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±177 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$321,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±57,737 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	47.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22134
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22134. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.3	57	40%	+22.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.0	39	35%	+13.7
Market Momentum Score	25.1	25	25%	+6.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,310	68	40%	+27.2
Median household income (ACS)	70,268	47	40%	+18.9
Households (ACS)	1,469	56	20%	+11.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.1	43	25%	+10.6
Population (ACS)	8,310	68	20%	+13.6
Median household income (ACS)	70,268	47	20%	+9.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.3	22	50%	+10.8
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	25	49	20%	+9.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · Sandwiches 5 · Asian 4 · American 3 · Korean 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Filipino 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 8 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
339 Potomac Ave Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		339 Potomac Ave	open
Bread Me	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	522 C St	open
Burrito House Quantico	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Korean · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	246 Potomac Ave	open
Command Post Sports Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	335 Potomac Ave	open
Dominic's of New York	Other	Sandwiches		open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	338 Potomac Ave	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	3500 Russell Rd	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	27130 Telegraph Rd Mdia Offices Quanti Co Mcb	open
Filipino Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino	401 Potomac Ave	open
Golden Eagle	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5000 Investigation Pkwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3500 A Russell Road	open
Merge Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Vietnamese · Coffee · Asian	324 Potomac Ave	open
My Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee · American	255 Potomac Ave	open
No Stress Prep Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	401 Potomac Ave	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3500 Russell Rd	open
Poco Loco Burritos And Bowls	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	517 Broadway St	open
Quantico Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	246 Potomac Ave	open
Ricks Roasters Quantico VRE	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	550 Railroad Ave	open
Roman's Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings		open
S & G Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	339 Potomac Ave	open
Sams Inn Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian	223 Potomac Ave	open
Shirley's American Bistro and Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	301 Potomac Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3500 Russell Rd Quantico Marine Corps Base	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3500 Russell Rd, Mcx Food Court, Serves Military Base Only	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	Building 3048 Bordelon Street, Serves Only Base	open
Subway Restaurants	Quick service		27130 Telegraph Rd	open
The Hawk	Bar			open
The Family Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Cajun, Creole, Southern	401 Potomac Ave	open
Tokyo Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	402 Potomac Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	11	3	5	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	4	6	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	4	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	30	17	6	8	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	28	14	6	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	29	14	4	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	29	14	5	3	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	37	16	4	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	27	17	4	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	30	18	4	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	26	18	4	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	25	18	4	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	27	20	5	11	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	17	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	17	3	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	16	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	14	3	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22134. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22172	3.2 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.