BMIE Market 22405
Stafford County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 36,890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,435 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 12,709 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±509 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 29,152 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,632 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $128,259 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,422 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 37.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,980 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±161 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $433,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,238 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 53.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22405 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 9.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -4.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 20 (range 15–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.7 per year, r² 0.47) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22405. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.47, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 92.1 | 92 | 40% | +36.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 64.2 | 64 | 35% | +22.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 18.9 | 19 | 25% | +4.7 |
Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 36,890 | 93 | 40% | +37.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 128,259 | 93 | 40% | +37.0 |
| Households (ACS) | 12,709 | 90 | 20% | +18.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -14.3 | 16 | 35% | +5.7 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 6.5 | 86 | 25% | +21.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 36,890 | 93 | 20% | +18.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 128,259 | 93 | 20% | +18.5 |
Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -7.7 | 20 | 50% | +10.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -14.3 | 16 | 30% | +4.9 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -4 | 19 | 20% | +3.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (64)
By cuisine
Pizza 9 · American 6 · Coffee 6 · Bakery 5 · Italian 5 · BBQ 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Mexican 3 · Breakfast 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Greek 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Seafood 2 · Caribbean 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 42 · Quick service 10 · Bakery 6 · Bar 6 · Dessert 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adventure Brewing Company Adventure Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 33 Perchwood Dr #101 | open | |
| Adventure Brewing Company - South | Brewery / taproom | 3300 Dill Smith Dr | open | |
| Amy's Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · Breakfast | 103 W Cambridge St | open |
| Arby's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 164 Warrenton Rd | open |
| Beverley's Ribinator BBQ | Catering · Food truck | BBQ | open | |
| Blockbuster Video Store 51103 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 430 Chatham Heights Rd | open | |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 426 Kings Hwy | open |
| Butterworth Bakery Sweets & Sourdough | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 59 Hoe Cake Ln | open |
| Charlies Crab House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 633 White Oak Rd | open |
| China Delight Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 300 Chatham Heights Rd | open | |
| China Delight Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 628 Cambridge St | open | |
| COCKEYE COX’S CRAB COMPANY | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 114 W Cambridge St | open |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 207 Kings Hwy 207 Kings Hwy | open |
| Dan Wallace Enterprises Ltd | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 164 Warrenton Rd | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 91 Washington Square Plz Ste 105 | open |
| DoveShack Smoked BBQ | Casual dining · Bar | BBQ · Steakhouse | 404 Kings Hwy | open |
| Doveshack's Smoked BBQ | Food truck | 404 Kings Hwy | open | |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 150 Warrenton Rd | open |
| El Patron Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 316 White Oak Rd | open |
| El Viejon Mexican Grill & Bar | Bar | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 1243 Richmond Hwy | open |
| Ferry Farm Pizzeria Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 201 Kings Hwy Ste 103 | open | |
| Fortune House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 282 Deacon Rd | open |
| Fredericksburgkabobroom/Grocery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 367 Warrenton Rd | open | |
| Gentlemen Iii Soul Food Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 260 Warrenton Rd | open |
| Greek House of Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Mediterranean · Greek | 215 Kings Hwy | open |
| Grog & Tankard Sports Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Bar | 1243 Richmond Hwy | open | |
| Highmark Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 390 Kings Hwy | open | |
| Impasto Italian Bakery | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Italian · Coffee | 20 Synan Rd STE 101 | open |
| Ipor | Bar | 7 Rodney Ln | open | |
| Jen's Pizza Den | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 175 Cambridge St | open |
| Jm Installations Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 23 Perchwood Dr Ste 117 | open | |
| Kiki's Lunch Box Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 212 Butler Rd | open | |
| La Hacienda Restaurant y Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Mexican · Sandwiches | 367 Warrenton Rd | open |
| Limerick's Eats And Treats | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 100 Randolph Rd | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 282 Deacon Rd | open |
| Lizz Nutrition | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 17 tally-ho Dr | open |
| Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 316 White Oak Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 316 Butler Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 545 Ferry Rd | open |
| Mione's Pizza & Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 43 Town And Country Dr | open |
| Moon Star Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 201 Kings Hwy #105 | open |
| Morning Buzz and Bagels | Bakery · Coffee shop | Bakery · Coffee · Breakfast | 404 Kings Hwy | open |
| Padrino's Pizza III | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1101 Potomac Ave | open |
| Papa Johns Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 411 Chatham Heights Rd Ste 111 | open |
| Paradise Diner | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American · Greek | 260 Warrenton Rd | open |
| Ricks Roasters Coffee Company | Coffee shop | Coffee | 1304 Interstate Business Park | open |
| Robyn's Nest Cottage Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 144 Little Whim Rd | open |
| Sabaidee ລູກໄທສະຫວັນນະເຂດ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7 Port View Dr | open | |
| Sakae Thai & Sushi Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Thai · Sushi | 430 Chatham Heights Rd Ste 101 | open |
| Sizzling Kabob & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Indian · BBQ | 367 Warrenton Rd | open |
| Smyrna Mediterranean Market & Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean | 105 Kings Hwy | open |
| Steamers Inc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 430 Chatham Heights Rd Ste 101 | open | |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 411 Chatham Heights Rd Ste 107 | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 125 Washington Square Plaza | open |
| The Grille at Leeland Junction | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 10 Leeland Rd | open |
| The Palate Park | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 400 Warrenton Rd | open | |
| Tilly's Homemade Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 215 Kings Hwy #101 | open |
| Top Chef | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 43 Town and Country Dr | open |
| Trelawny Infusion | Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean | 100 Randolph Rd | open |
| Vinny's Italian Grill and Pizzeria Vinny's Italian Grill & Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 201 Kings Hwy #103 | open |
| Walmart Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 125 Washington Square Plz | open |
| Wild Waylon's BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 43 Town and Country Dr #101 | open |
| A-mart International Market Place | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 411 Chatham Heights Rd Ste 119 | closed |
| Scoops On White Oak Inc. | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 43 Town And Country Dr Ste 107 | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 18 | 18 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 18 | 18 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 20 | 19 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 21 | 20 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 25 | 23 | 12 | 11 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 10 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 10 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 25 | 24 | 10 | 14 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 29 | 28 | 11 | 17 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 27 | 25 | 9 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 30 | 28 | 10 | 17 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 29 | 28 | 9 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 28 | 26 | 7 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 27 | 26 | 8 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 28 | 27 | 9 | 16 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 28 | 27 | 9 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 27 | 27 | 8 | 17 | 2 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 25 | 25 | 7 | 17 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 31 | 28 | 9 | 18 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 33 | 30 | 10 | 18 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 38 | 34 | 10 | 22 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 33 | 31 | 10 | 19 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 27 | 25 | 8 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 29 | 26 | 8 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 27 | 24 | 7 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 29 | 27 | 9 | 17 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 27 | 25 | 9 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 26 | 24 | 8 | 15 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
Nearby markets (within 5 miles)
| ZCTA | Distance | Restaurants | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22401 | 4.6 mi | 163 | 2023 |