BMIE Market 22406

Stafford County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,367 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,446 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,838 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±594 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,757 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,695 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$129,167 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,964 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,033 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±142 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$512,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,039 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	72.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	45 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22406
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+650.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	52 (range 47–57) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.4 per year, r² 0.81) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	81 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22406. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.81, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	88.9	89	40%	+35.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.3	74	35%	+26.0
Market Momentum Score	81.3	81	25%	+20.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,367	87	40%	+34.8
Median household income (ACS)	129,167	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	9,838	85	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	36.4	75	35%	+26.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.4	48	25%	+12.0
Population (ACS)	27,367	87	20%	+17.4
Median household income (ACS)	129,167	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	36.4	75	30%	+22.6
20-year restaurant growth	125	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (97)

By cuisine

American 14 · Sandwiches 9 · Coffee 8 · Pizza 8 · Bakery 7 · Mexican 7 · Burgers 6 · Asian 5 · Chicken / wings 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Middle Eastern 4 · Breakfast 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chinese 3 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · BBQ 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · African 1 · Cuban 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 53 · Quick service 28 · Casual dining 10 · Bakery 8 · Bar 8 · Café 6 · Dessert 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
6 Bears & A Goat Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		1140 International Pkwy	open
Ado-Lay African Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	African · American	736 Warrenton Rd	open
Aladin's Mediterranean Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mediterranean	27 S Gateway Dr	open
Asia Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Asian · Coffee	840 Warrenton Rd #105-106	open
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Other · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	11 Village Pkwy	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	551 Warrenton Rd	open
Bearded Monkey	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		564 Warrenton Rd	open
Bebopfredericksburgllc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		570 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy	open
Black Rifle Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Bojangles Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	20 Bojangles' Way	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	740 Warrenton Rd	open
China King China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	29 Banks Ford Pkwy #113	open
China Wong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	736 Warrenton Rd #111	open
Chipotle Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher	25 Trade St Ste 103	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	28 S Gateway Dr	open
Cornbread & Caviar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		570 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy	open
Daily Grind	Restaurant (service type not stated)		29 Banks Ford Pkwy Ste 105	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy	open
Dominion Grills Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		754 Warrenton Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	840 Warrenton Road	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	551 Warrenton Road	open
East & West Investments Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1036 Warrenton Rd Ste 103	open
El Jimador Azteca Azteca Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	560 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy #109	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1036 Warrenton Rd	open
Five Guys	Quick service		570 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	28 S Gateway Dr	open
Genesis Vapor	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		20 Plantation Dr Unit 107	open
Hardee’s	Quick service		567 Warrenton Rd	open
Haren Family Grotto & Lounge	Bar		112 Richards Ferry Rd	open
Hartwood Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		345 Hartwood Rd	open
Hunan House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	20 Plantation Dr	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	10 Simpson Rd	open
J's Pizza & Subs Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	20 Plantation Dr	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	14 Stafford Lakes Pkwy Suite 104	open
Kabab City	Quick service	Middle Eastern	25 Trade St	open
Kusina on wheels	Food truck		18 Crimson Way	open
La Campirana Catracha	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	570 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy #103	open
Laudenbach Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		45 Centreport Pkwy	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	736 Warrenton Rd	open
Marib Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	27 South Gateway Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	44 Stanstead Rd Unit 6557	open
McDonald's	Quick service		766 Warrenton Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1203 Warrenton Rd	open
Moya's Kitchen Concepts	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cuban	27 McWhirt Loop Unit 110	open
My Deli Soup	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	560 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy	open
N.Y. Kabob House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	537 Warrenton Rd	open
Nayeli’s Salvadorian & Mex Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	20 Plantation Dr	open
Negi’s HomeStyle Bakery	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	10 Montera Ave	open
On the Ranch Tex Mex Sports Bar	Bar		840 Warrenton Rd	open
Órale Mexican Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1175 Warrenton Rd	open
Pancho Villa Mexican Restaurant - Fredericksburg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	754 Warrenton Rd	open
Panda Express Panda Express	Quick service		750 Warrenton Road	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Fast casual	Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	24 South Gateway Drive	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	570 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy Ste 105	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10 Simpson Rd	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery	Casual dining	American	14 Simpson Ln	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	14 Stafford Lakes Pkwy	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	735 Warrenton Rd	open
Primavera Pizzeria and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Italian	570 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy	open
Pupuseria Juanita	Café · Quick service	Mexican · Coffee	352 Poplar Rd	open
Quickway Japanese Hibachi Quickway Japanese Hibachi Carter's Crossing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	28 S Gateway Dr #107	open
Rock Run Creek Station	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1186 Warrenton Rd	open
Sabores Shopping	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	20 Plantation Dr 149 B	open
Saithong Para Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	20 Plantation Dr	open
Skrimp Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	736 Warrenton Rd	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	240 McWhirt Loop	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	821 Warrenton Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	550 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	626 Warrenton Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	15 S Gateway Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	29 Banks Ford Parkway #101	open
Sweet Tooth Waffles & Munchies	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		T-Mobile, 1036 Warrenton Rd	open
Sweetfrog Premium Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	15 S Gateway Dr Ste 111	open
Sweets & Sourdough	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	304 Cropp Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	730 Warrenton Rd	open
Tarheel Pig Pickers Barbecue Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	120 Auction Dr	open
Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp	Quick service		10 Simpson Ln	open
The Linzer Lady	Bakery	Bakery · Healthy / salads / bowls	519 Fair Havens Ln	open
The Spot Lounge	Bar	Middle Eastern	29 Banks Ford Pkwy #105	open
Tim Abbott Llc. Chick-fil-A	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1094 International Pkwy	open
TNTZ SMOKED BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1175 Warrenton Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	570 Celebrate Virginia Pkwy Ste 135	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	15 South Gateway Drive	open
V&d Restaurants Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11 Village Pkwy	open
VanMike's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Cajun, Creole, Southern	27 McWhirt Loop	open
Vinny's Italian Grill Vinny's Italian Grill & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	20 Plantation Dr Ste 135	open
Virginia Environmental Resources, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Commerce Pkwy	open
Vocelli Pizza Vocelli Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	754 Warrenton Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	580 Warrenton Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	45 Civilian St	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	11 Village Pkwy	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	588 Warrenton Rd	open
Wings and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	840 Warrenton Rd	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	28 S Gateway Dr Ste 105	open
Worst Deli Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	1120 International Pkwy Ste 123	open
Yi & Chung Group, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1120 International Pkwy Ste 123	open
New Direction Golf Management Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18 Fairway Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	15	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	15	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	17	15	11	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	16	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	22	20	12	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	25	22	13	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	23	20	12	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	28	25	12	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	34	31	13	17	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	31	29	13	16	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	30	28	11	17	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	31	29	12	17	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	25	23	11	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	29	26	11	14	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	35	33	17	13	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	36	34	15	15	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	35	32	15	14	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	36	32	13	16	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	41	37	16	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	38	35	14	20	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	45	42	17	24	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	42	39	17	21	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	44	41	17	22	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	50	47	18	27	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	48	45	16	27	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22406. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.